Football probabilities, scored after kick-off

About Expected90

What is Expected90?

Expected90 is a football prediction site that publishes match probabilities: expected goals, home/draw/away, predicted score, Over 2.5 and BTTS, then scores every forecast after kick-off. It is a public ledger, not a tipster shop. Kick-offs on the Lisbon calendar day are on football predictions today; this homepage is the scored probability board.

Are Expected90 football predictions betting tips?

No. The model outputs probabilities, not certainties. Each match page shows one listed 1X2 price for context — a single OddsPortal listing with the vig removed, labelled closing or pre-kick-off when the capture time is known — so you can see where the model disagrees with the price. There are no accumulators, odds CTAs, or bookmaker links.

How accurate are the models?

Liga Portugal (v1.4.0-elo-span16, 909 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9320, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5611. La Liga (la-v1.4.0-elo-span16, 1,140 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9703, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5316. Premier League (pl-v1.1.0-elo, 1,140 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9796, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5421. Allsvenskan (as-v1.1.0-elo, 720 walk-forward matches): log loss 1.0142, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.4972. Ligue 1 (l1-v1.1.0-elo, 917 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9982, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5071. Serie A (sa-v1.1.0-elo, 1,140 walk-forward matches): log loss 0.9830, favourite 1X2 accuracy 0.5325. Live rounds can look noisier; they are still published.