Skip to main content
E90

La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Athletic Club vs Sevilla Prediction

· San Mamés · Athletic Club predictions · Sevilla predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 0/4 checks hit
ACAthletic Club crest

Athletic Club

1–3

Sevilla won

SSevilla crest

Sevilla

1X2

Athletic Club win

49%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Athletic Club win · 49%

Actual Sevilla won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-0

Actual 1–3

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic ClubvsSSevilla crestSevilla

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Athletic Club win 49%

Athletic Club win
49%
Draw
26%
Sevilla win
25%
Athletic Club win %
49%

Predicted

Draw %
26%
Sevilla win %
25%

Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Athletic Club win 49%, from a +63 Elo gap (1520 vs 1457).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.47-0.98.
  3. 3Modal score 1-0 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Dani Vivian listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1520 +63 1457

Athletic Club vs Sevilla

La Liga table
Out
  • Dani Vivian · Athletic Club
  • Kike Salas · Sevilla
  • Alfon González · Sevilla
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Athletic ClubL D L L W1.20-0.90 xG

SevillaL L W W W1.12-0.84 xG

Modal score

1-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 13% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Athletic Club win · 49% · Miss

Expected goals

1.47–0.98

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Athletic Club versus Sevilla
Athletic Club goals012345
09%8%4%
113%12%6%2%
29%9%4%
35%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
45%

Over · 4 goals · Miss

BTTS %
48%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-0Modal12.7%
  2. 1-112.4%
  3. 2-09.3%
  4. 2-19.2%
  5. 0-08.5%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic Club

Out

  • Dani Vivian · D · Hamstring Injury

SSevilla crestSevilla

Out

  • Alfon González · F · Muscle Injury

Suspended

  • Kike Salas · D · red card suspension

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic Club4-2-3-1

  1. 1Unai SimónG
  2. 4Aitor ParedesD
  3. 5Yeray ÁlvarezD
  4. 12Jesús AresoD
  5. 17Yuri BerchicheD
  6. 7Álex BerenguerM
  7. 8Oihan SancetM
  8. 9Iñaki WilliamsM
  9. 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
  10. 28Peio CanalesM
  11. 11Gorka GuruzetaF

SSevilla crestSevilla4-2-3-1

  1. 1Odysseas VlachodimosG
  2. 2Juan IglesiasD
  3. 5Andres CastrinD
  4. 12Arouna SanganteD
  5. 17Gabriel SuazoD
  6. 6Lucien AgouméM
  7. 10Peque FernándezM
  8. 18Jon GuridiM
  9. 19OsoM
  10. 30Miguel SierraM
  11. 9Robbie UreF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic ClubL D L L W

  • A · Real Madrid · 23 May 20262-40.81-1.90 xG
  • H · Celta Vigo · 17 May 20261-12.49-0.15 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 13 May 20260-20.82-0.76 xG
  • H · Valencia · 10 May 20260-10.93-1.19 xG
  • A · Deportivo Alavés · 2 May 20264-20.97-0.49 xG

SSevilla crestSevillaL L W W W

  • A · Celta Vigo · 23 May 20260-10.80-1.59 xG
  • H · Real Madrid · 17 May 20260-10.72-1.00 xG
  • A · Villarreal · 13 May 20263-20.87-0.83 xG
  • H · Espanyol · 9 May 20262-11.38-0.61 xG
  • H · Real Sociedad · 4 May 20261-01.82-0.16 xG

How to read the Athletic Club vs Sevilla probabilities

Athletic Club vs Sevilla (La Liga, 22 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Athletic Club win 49%. Expected goals are 1.47–0.98. Modal score 1-0 (13%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–3.

Athletic Club holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.47–0.98). That shows up as Athletic Club win at 49%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Athletic Club win
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Athletic Club vs Sevilla

Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Athletic Club win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 26%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Athletic Club vs Sevilla?

1-0 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Athletic Club vs Sevilla go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Athletic Club vs Sevilla?

BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

Related predictions

All La Liga predictions