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La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Osasuna vs Getafe Prediction

· Estadio El Sadar · Osasuna predictions · Getafe predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

OOsasuna crestOsasunavsGGetafe crestGetafe

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Osasuna win 47%

Osasuna win
47%
Draw
30%
Getafe win
24%
Osasuna win %
47%
Draw %
30%
Getafe win %
24%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Osasuna win 47%, from a -14 Elo gap (1464 vs 1478).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.31-0.86.
  3. 3Modal score 1-0 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Christantus Uche listed out and one other absence.
Elo

1464 -14 1478

Osasuna vs Getafe

La Liga table
Out
  • Christantus Uche · Getafe
  • Juanmi · Getafe
XI

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2

Last 5

OsasunaL D L L L1.56-0.81 xG

GetafeW L W L W0.69-0.96 xG

Modal score

1-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Osasuna win · 47%

Expected goals

1.31–0.86

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Osasuna versus Getafe
Osasuna goals012345
012%9%4%
114%13%6%
210%8%4%
34%4%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
37%
BTTS %
43%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-0Modal14.3%
  2. 1-113.5%
  3. 0-012.0%
  4. 2-09.8%
  5. 0-19.2%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

OOsasuna crestOsasuna

Doubtful

  • Valentin Rosier · D · Muscle Injury

GGetafe crestGetafe

Out

  • Christantus Uche · F · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Juanmi · F · Knee Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

OOsasuna crestOsasuna4-2-3-1

  1. 1Sergio HerreraG
  2. 5Jorge HerrandoD
  3. 23Abel BretonesD
  4. 24Alejandro CatenaD
  5. 27Iñigo ArguibideD
  6. 7Jon MoncayolaM
  7. 8Iker MuñozM
  8. 10Aimar OrozM
  9. 14Rubén GarcíaM
  10. 16Moi GómezM
  11. 17Ante BudimirF

GGetafe crestGetafe4-4-2

  1. 13David SoriaG
  2. 2DjenéD
  3. 17Kiko FemeníaD
  4. 21Andrés GarcíaD
  5. 22Johan MojicaD
  6. 24Zaid RomeroD
  7. 8Francho SerranoM
  8. 11Ramón TerratsM
  9. 23Orel MangalaM
  10. 10Martín SatrianoF
  11. 19Enes ÜnalF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

OOsasuna crestOsasunaL D L L L

  • A · Celta Vigo · 27 Aug 20260-12.60-0.14 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 24 Aug 20260-00.67-1.31 xG
  • A · Getafe · 23 May 20260-10.51-0.27 xG
  • H · Espanyol · 17 May 20261-21.72-0.79 xG
  • H · Atlético Madrid · 12 May 20261-22.30-1.56 xG

GGetafe crestGetafeW L W L W

  • H · Real Racing Club · 23 Aug 20261-01.24-1.31 xG
  • A · Deportivo Alavés · 15 Aug 20260-30.24-1.93 xG
  • H · Osasuna · 23 May 20261-00.27-0.51 xG
  • A · Elche · 17 May 20260-10.11-0.66 xG
  • H · Mallorca · 13 May 20263-11.58-0.41 xG

How to read the Osasuna vs Getafe probabilities

Osasuna vs Getafe (La Liga, 31 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Osasuna win 47%. Expected goals are 1.31–0.86. Modal score 1-0 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Osasuna holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.31–0.86). That shows up as Osasuna win at 47%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 37%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 43%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Osasuna win
Kick-off
Mon 31 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Osasuna vs Getafe

Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Getafe?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 30%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Getafe?

1-0 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Osasuna vs Getafe go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 37% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Getafe?

BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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