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La Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club Prediction

· Estadio de Vallecas · Rayo Vallecano predictions · Real Racing Club predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo VallecanovsRRReal Racing Club crestReal Racing Club

Win probabilities

Clear lean

Rayo Vallecano win 56%

Rayo Vallecano win
56%
Draw
25%
Real Racing Club win
20%
Rayo Vallecano win %
56%
Draw %
25%
Real Racing Club win %
20%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Rayo Vallecano win 56%, from a +70 Elo gap (1504 vs 1434).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.76-0.96.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Augusto Batalla listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1504 +70 1434

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club

La Liga table
Out
  • Augusto Batalla · Rayo Vallecano
  • Luiz Felipe · Rayo Vallecano
  • Andrés Martín · Real Racing Club
XI

Last league XI

4-1-4-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Rayo VallecanoD L W W D1.26-1.51 xG

Real Racing ClubW L D1.68-1.05 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 12%

Verdict

Clear lean

Rayo Vallecano win · 56%

Expected goals

1.76–0.96

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Rayo Vallecano versus Real Racing Club
Rayo Vallecano goals012345
07%6%3%
111%12%5%
210%10%5%
36%6%3%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
51%
BTTS %
52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal11.7%
  2. 1-011.1%
  3. 2-010.2%
  4. 2-19.8%
  5. 0-07.2%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

Out

  • Augusto Batalla · G · Broken Leg
  • Luiz Felipe · D · Hamstring Injury

RRReal Racing Club crestReal Racing Club

Out

  • Andrés Martín · M · Knee Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano4-1-4-1

  1. 13Augusto BatallaG
  2. 2Andrei RațiuD
  3. 22Pelayo FernándezD
  4. 24Florian LejeuneD
  5. 33Jozhua VertrouwdD
  6. 6Pathé Ismaël CissM
  7. 7Isi PalazónM
  8. 8Unai LópezM
  9. 19Jorge de FrutosM
  10. 21Fran PérezM
  11. 10Sergio CamelloF

RRReal Racing Club crestReal Racing Club4-2-3-1

  1. 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
  2. 2Alvaro MantillaD
  3. 4Manu HernandoD
  4. 16Facundo GonzálezD
  5. 17Jorge SalinasD
  6. 8Gustavo PuertaM
  7. 10Iñigo VicenteM
  8. 11Andrés MartínM
  9. 20Sergio CanalesM
  10. 23Iván MartínM
  11. 21Yassir ZabiriF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo VallecanoD L W W D

  • H · Deportivo Alavés · 20 Aug 20261-10.42-2.00 xG
  • A · Sevilla · 15 Aug 20261-21.89-2.19 xG
  • A · Deportivo Alavés · 23 May 20262-11.34-1.63 xG
  • H · Villarreal · 17 May 20262-01.49-0.97 xG
  • A · Valencia · 14 May 20261-11.16-0.76 xG

RRReal Racing Club crestReal Racing ClubW L D

  • H · Elche · 28 Aug 20263-21.72-1.03 xG
  • A · Getafe · 23 Aug 20260-11.31-1.24 xG
  • H · Villarreal · 16 Aug 20262-22.01-0.87 xG

How to read the Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club probabilities

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club (La Liga, 5 Sept 2026): Clear lean — Rayo Vallecano win 56%. Expected goals are 1.76–0.96. Modal score 1-1 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Rayo Vallecano is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.76–0.96). Rayo Vallecano win is 56% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 1-1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Rayo Vallecano win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club

Who is favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Rayo Vallecano win at 56%. Home 56%, draw 25%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Rayo Vallecano vs Real Racing Club?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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