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La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid Prediction

· Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán · Sevilla predictions · Atlético Madrid predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 1/4 checks hit
SSevilla crest

Sevilla

1–3

Atlético Madrid won

AMAtlético Madrid crest

Atlético Madrid

1X2

Atlético Madrid win

39%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Atlético Madrid win · 39%

Actual Atlético Madrid won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–3

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

SSevilla crestSevillavsAMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win 39%

Sevilla win
32%
Draw
29%
Atlético Madrid win
39%
Sevilla win %
32%
Draw %
29%
Atlético Madrid win %
39%

Predicted · Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Atlético Madrid win 39%, from a -155 Elo gap (1476 vs 1631).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.13-1.26.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Robin Le Normand suspended and 3 other absences.
Elo

1476 -155 1631

Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid

La Liga table
Out
  • Robin Le Normand · Atlético Madrid
  • Julián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid
XI

Predicted XI

4-5-1 / 4-4-2

Last 5

SevillaW W L L W1.00-1.31 xG

Atlético MadridD W L W W1.26-2.14 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win · 39% · Hit

Expected goals

1.13–1.26

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sevilla versus Atlético Madrid
Sevilla goals012345
010%11%7%3%
110%14%8%3%
26%7%5%
32%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
43%

Over · 4 goals · Miss

BTTS %
49%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.7%
  2. 0-110.9%
  3. 0-09.8%
  4. 1-09.7%
  5. 1-28.2%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

SSevilla crestSevilla

No listed absences.

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid

Out

  • Julián Alvarez · F · personal reason
  • Thomas Lemar · M · pending transfer
  • Alexander Sørloth · F · Muscle Injury

Suspended

  • Robin Le Normand · D · red card suspension

Doubtful

  • Morten Hjulmand · M · Muscle Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

SSevilla crestSevilla4-5-1

  1. 1Odysseas VlachodimosG
  2. 2Juan IglesiasD
  3. 4Kike SalasD
  4. 12Arouna SanganteD
  5. 17Gabriel SuazoD
  6. 6Lucien AgouméM
  7. 10Peque FernándezM
  8. 18Jon GuridiM
  9. 30Miguel SierraM
  10. 9Robbie UreF
  11. 21Chidera EjukeF

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid4-4-2

  1. 13Jan OblakG
  2. 14Marcos LlorenteD
  3. 17Dávid HanckoD
  4. 18Marc PubillD
  5. 6KokeM
  6. 7Kang-in LeeM
  7. 8Pablo BarriosM
  8. 10Alex BaenaM
  9. 20Giuliano SimeoneM
  10. 22Alejandro GrimaldoM
  11. 11Ademola LookmanF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SSevilla crestSevillaW W L L W

  • A · Athletic Club · 22 Aug 20263-10.41-1.25 xG
  • H · Rayo Vallecano · 15 Aug 20262-12.19-1.89 xG
  • A · Celta Vigo · 23 May 20260-10.80-1.59 xG
  • H · Real Madrid · 17 May 20260-10.72-1.00 xG
  • A · Villarreal · 13 May 20263-20.87-0.83 xG

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridD W L W W

  • H · Villarreal · 23 Aug 20262-20.78-3.60 xG
  • H · Málaga CF · 19 Aug 20262-00.82-0.15 xG
  • A · Villarreal · 24 May 20261-51.16-2.48 xG
  • H · Girona FC · 17 May 20261-01.97-2.17 xG
  • A · Osasuna · 12 May 20262-11.56-2.30 xG

How to read the Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid probabilities

Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid (La Liga, 29 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Atlético Madrid win 39%. Expected goals are 1.13–1.26. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–3.

Sevilla and Atlético Madrid are close on expected goals (1.13–1.26), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Atlético Madrid win
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid

Who is favourite for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 39%. Home 32%, draw 29%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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