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Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão Prediction

· Estádio José Gomes · CF Estrela Amadora predictions · Famalicão predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela AmadoravsFFamalicão crestFamalicão

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Famalicão win 43%

CF Estrela Amadora win
26%
Draw
32%
Famalicão win
43%
CF Estrela Amadora win %
26%
Draw %
32%
Famalicão win %
43%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Famalicão win 43%, from a -131 Elo gap (1407 vs 1538).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.02-1.37.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Umar Abubakar listed out.
Elo

1407 -131 1538

CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Umar Abubakar · Famalicão
XI

Last league XI

4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

CF Estrela AmadoraD D D D L1.24-2.12 xG

FamalicãoL L D W D1.12-0.95 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15%

Verdict

Slight lean

Famalicão win · 43%

Expected goals

1.02–1.37

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CF Estrela Amadora versus Famalicão
CF Estrela Amadora goals012345
011%10%9%4%
17%15%9%4%
25%7%4%2%
32%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
43%
BTTS %
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal15.1%
  2. 0-011.4%
  3. 0-110.3%
  4. 1-28.8%
  5. 0-28.6%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora

No listed absences.

FFamalicão crestFamalicão

Out

  • Umar Abubakar · F · Unknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora4-3-3

  1. 24Léo LinckG
  2. 5Stefan LekovićD
  3. 17Jefferson EncadaD
  4. 30Luan PatrickD
  5. 55Rafa SoaresD
  6. 8RobinhoM
  7. 14Lovro ZvonarekM
  8. 39Eddy DouéM
  9. 10Ianis StoicaF
  10. 37Leandro AntonettiF
  11. 99Abraham MarcusF

FFamalicão crestFamalicão4-2-3-1

  1. 25Lazar CarevićG
  2. 3Léo RealpeD
  3. 4Finn van BreemenD
  4. 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
  5. 28Pedro BondoD
  6. 6Tom Van De LooiM
  7. 7SorrisoM
  8. 10Pedro SantosM
  9. 14Mathias De AmorimM
  10. 23Gil DiasM
  11. 70Georgios KoutsiasF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela AmadoraD D D D L

  • A · FC Alverca · 15 Aug 20262-21.29-1.75 xG
  • H · Sporting CP · 8 Aug 20262-21.10-2.63 xG
  • A · Sporting Braga · 16 May 20262-20.71-2.38 xG
  • H · Famalicão · 11 May 20260-00.26-1.97 xG
  • A · Moreirense · 2 May 20262-32.83-1.87 xG

FFamalicão crestFamalicãoL L D W D

  • A · Santa Clara · 23 Aug 20260-11.05-1.36 xG
  • H · CS Marítimo · 16 Aug 20261-20.59-1.61 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 7 Aug 20261-11.47-1.06 xG
  • H · FC Alverca · 16 May 20261-00.52-0.45 xG
  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 11 May 20260-01.97-0.26 xG

How to read the CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão probabilities

CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão (Liga Portugal, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Famalicão win 43%. Expected goals are 1.02–1.37. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Famalicão holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.02–1.37). That shows up as Famalicão win at 43%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão

Who is favourite for CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 43%. Home 26%, draw 32%, away 43%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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