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Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora Prediction

· Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · FC Alverca predictions · CF Estrela Amadora predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 0/4 checks hit
AFC Alverca crest

FC Alverca

2–2

Draw

EACF Estrela Amadora crest

CF Estrela Amadora

1X2

FC Alverca win

46%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted FC Alverca win · 46%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AFC Alverca crestFC AlvercavsEACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora

Win probabilities

Slight lean

FC Alverca win 46%

FC Alverca win
46%
Draw
31%
CF Estrela Amadora win
23%
FC Alverca win %
46%

Predicted

Draw %
31%

Result

CF Estrela Amadora win %
23%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: FC Alverca win 46%, from a +42 Elo gap (1447 vs 1405).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.42-0.95.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

1447 +42 1405

FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI

Confirmed

3-4-2-1 / 4-3-3

Last 5

FC AlvercaL L D L W0.96-1.10 xG

CF Estrela AmadoraD D D L L1.33-2.13 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

FC Alverca win · 46% · Miss

Expected goals

1.42–0.95

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Alverca versus CF Estrela Amadora
FC Alverca goals012345
012%7%4%
111%15%6%
29%9%4%
34%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
42%

Over · 4 goals · Miss

BTTS %
49%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.8%
  2. 0-011.6%
  3. 1-011.0%
  4. 2-09.4%
  5. 2-18.9%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

AFC Alverca crestFC Alverca3-4-2-1

  1. 31Matheus MendesG
  2. 4Yaya BojangD
  3. 14Steven BaseyaD
  4. 33Bastien MeupiyouD
  5. 2Nabil TouaiziM
  6. 6Davy GuiM
  7. 12Isaac JamesM
  8. 25Ian LuccasM
  9. 9VivaldoF
  10. 10ChiquinhoF
  11. 22FigueiredoF

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora4-3-3

  1. 24Léo LinckG
  2. 5Stefan LekovićD
  3. 17Jefferson EncadaD
  4. 30Luan PatrickD
  5. 55Rafa SoaresD
  6. 8RobinhoM
  7. 14Lovro ZvonarekM
  8. 39Eddy DouéM
  9. 10Ianis StoicaF
  10. 37Leandro AntonettiF
  11. 99Abraham MarcusF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AFC Alverca crestFC AlvercaL L D L W

  • A · FC Porto · 9 Aug 20260-21.66-2.59 xG
  • A · Famalicão · 16 May 20260-10.45-0.52 xG
  • H · Estoril Praia · 10 May 20261-11.15-0.87 xG
  • A · FC Porto · 2 May 20260-10.68-0.65 xG
  • H · FC Arouca · 24 Apr 20262-10.85-0.86 xG

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela AmadoraD D D L L

  • H · Sporting CP · 8 Aug 20262-21.10-2.63 xG
  • A · Sporting Braga · 16 May 20262-20.71-2.38 xG
  • H · Famalicão · 11 May 20260-00.26-1.97 xG
  • A · Moreirense · 2 May 20262-32.83-1.87 xG
  • H · FC Porto · 26 Apr 20261-21.76-1.81 xG

How to read the FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora probabilities

FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora (Liga Portugal, 15 Aug 2026): Slight lean — FC Alverca win 46%. Expected goals are 1.42–0.95. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–2.

FC Alverca holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.42–0.95). That shows up as FC Alverca win at 46%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 42%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 12:16 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · FC Alverca win
Kick-off
Sat 15 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora

Who is favourite for FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Alverca win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 31%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 42% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Alverca vs CF Estrela Amadora?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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