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Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

FC Alverca vs Santa Clara Prediction

· Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · FC Alverca predictions · Santa Clara predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 3/4 checks hit
AFC Alverca crest

FC Alverca

1–1

Draw

SCSanta Clara crest

Santa Clara

1X2

Santa Clara win

37%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score hit

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Santa Clara win · 37%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Hit

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AFC Alverca crestFC AlvercavsSCSanta Clara crestSanta Clara

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Santa Clara win 37%

FC Alverca win
31%
Draw
32%
Santa Clara win
37%
FC Alverca win %
31%
Draw %
32%

Result

Santa Clara win %
37%

Predicted

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Santa Clara win 37%, from a -43 Elo gap (1443 vs 1486).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.17-1.29.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Bastien Meupiyou listed out.
Elo

1443 -43 1486

FC Alverca vs Santa Clara

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Bastien Meupiyou · FC Alverca
XI

Predicted XI

3-4-3 / 4-3-3

Last 5

FC AlvercaL D L L D1.08-1.48 xG

Santa ClaraW W D L W1.22-0.94 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15% · Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Santa Clara win · 37% · Miss

Expected goals

1.17–1.29

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Alverca versus Santa Clara
FC Alverca goals012345
011%9%7%3%
18%15%8%4%
26%8%5%2%
32%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
45%

Under · 2 goals · Hit

BTTS %
52%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1ModalResult15.2%
  2. 0-010.8%
  3. 0-18.8%
  4. 1-28.3%
  5. 1-07.8%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AFC Alverca crestFC Alverca

Out

  • Bastien Meupiyou · D · Unknown

SCSanta Clara crestSanta Clara

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

AFC Alverca crestFC Alverca3-4-3

  1. 31Matheus MendesG
  2. 4Yaya BojangD
  3. 14Steven BaseyaD
  4. 2Nabil TouaiziM
  5. 6Davy GuiM
  6. 7André VidigalM
  7. 12Isaac JamesM
  8. 25Ian LuccasM
  9. 55Francisco ChissumbaM
  10. 9VivaldoF
  11. 22FigueiredoF

SCSanta Clara crestSanta Clara4-3-3

  1. 1Lucas FrançaG
  2. 2Diogo CalilaD
  3. 4Pedro PachecoD
  4. 5Guilherme RomãoD
  5. 21Emanuel FernandesD
  6. 6Pedro FerreiraM
  7. 8José TavaresM
  8. 41Daniel BorgesM
  9. 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
  10. 70Vinícius LopesF
  11. 99SorrisoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AFC Alverca crestFC AlvercaL D L L D

  • A · Sporting CP · 22 Aug 20261-30.41-2.12 xG
  • H · CF Estrela Amadora · 15 Aug 20262-21.75-1.29 xG
  • A · FC Porto · 9 Aug 20260-21.66-2.59 xG
  • A · Famalicão · 16 May 20260-10.45-0.52 xG
  • H · Estoril Praia · 10 May 20261-11.15-0.87 xG

SCSanta Clara crestSanta ClaraW W D L W

  • H · Famalicão · 23 Aug 20261-01.36-1.05 xG
  • A · Académico Viseu FC · 15 Aug 20261-01.27-0.58 xG
  • H · CD Nacional · 10 Aug 20262-21.43-1.23 xG
  • A · FC Porto · 16 May 20260-10.50-0.91 xG
  • H · CD Nacional · 11 May 20262-01.53-0.92 xG

How to read the FC Alverca vs Santa Clara probabilities

FC Alverca vs Santa Clara (Liga Portugal, 29 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Santa Clara win 37%. Expected goals are 1.17–1.29. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

FC Alverca and Santa Clara are close on expected goals (1.17–1.29), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Santa Clara win
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Alverca vs Santa Clara

Who is favourite for FC Alverca vs Santa Clara?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Santa Clara win at 37%. Home 31%, draw 32%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Alverca vs Santa Clara?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Alverca vs Santa Clara go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Alverca vs Santa Clara?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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