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Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave Prediction

· Estádio Cidade de Barcelos · Gil Vicente predictions · Rio Ave predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 2/4 checks hit
GVGil Vicente crest

Gil Vicente

1–0

Gil Vicente won

RARio Ave crest

Rio Ave

1X2

Gil Vicente win

39%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Gil Vicente win · 39%

Actual Gil Vicente won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

GVGil Vicente crestGil VicentevsRARio Ave crestRio Ave

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win 39%

Gil Vicente win
39%
Draw
31%
Rio Ave win
30%
Gil Vicente win %
39%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
31%
Rio Ave win %
30%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Gil Vicente win 39%, from a +25 Elo gap (1483 vs 1458).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.31-1.13.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Brandon Aguilera listed out.
Elo

1483 +25 1458

Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Gil VicenteL L D W L1.07-1.27 xG

Rio AveD L D L D1.25-1.52 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win · 39% · Hit

Expected goals

1.31–1.13

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Gil Vicente versus Rio Ave
Gil Vicente goals012345
011%8%6%2%
19%15%7%3%
27%8%5%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
44%

Under · 1 goals · Hit

BTTS %
51%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.9%
  2. 0-010.7%
  3. 1-0Result9.5%
  4. 2-18.4%
  5. 0-17.9%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

GVGil Vicente crestGil Vicente

No listed absences.

RARio Ave crestRio Ave

Out

  • Brandon Aguilera · M · Anterior Cruciate Ligament

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

GVGil Vicente crestGil Vicente4-2-3-1

  1. 30LucãoG
  2. 4Marvin Elimbi GilbertD
  3. 26WeversonD
  4. 39Jonathan BuatuD
  5. 47Ricardo EsgaioD
  6. 5Facundo CáseresM
  7. 10Santi GarcíaM
  8. 11Joelson FernandesM
  9. 12Andreas LausenM
  10. 20Gil MartinsM
  11. 29Carlos EduardoF

RARio Ave crestRio Ave4-2-3-1

  1. 99Ennio Van Der GouwG
  2. 6Nelson AbbeyD
  3. 23Francisco PetrassoD
  4. 39Gustavo ManchaD
  5. 54Georgios LiavasD
  6. 5Andreas NdojM
  7. 7Diogo BezerraM
  8. 8Ryan GuilhermeM
  9. 30Roland GalčíkM
  10. 90Diogo NascimentoM
  11. 11Jalen BlesaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

GVGil Vicente crestGil VicenteL L D W L

  • A · Sporting CP · 16 May 20260-30.64-1.61 xG
  • H · FC Arouca · 11 May 20261-30.77-1.32 xG
  • A · Rio Ave · 3 May 20260-00.70-1.40 xG
  • H · Casa Pia · 27 Apr 20262-11.88-1.21 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 18 Apr 20260-11.38-0.82 xG

RARio Ave crestRio AveD L D L D

  • A · Casa Pia · 16 May 20261-10.75-2.45 xG
  • H · Sporting CP · 11 May 20261-40.97-1.56 xG
  • H · Gil Vicente · 3 May 20260-01.40-0.70 xG
  • A · Vitória SC · 25 Apr 20260-20.44-1.17 xG
  • H · AVS - Futebol SAD · 17 Apr 20262-22.68-1.71 xG

How to read the Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave probabilities

Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave (Liga Portugal, 9 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Gil Vicente win 39%. Expected goals are 1.31–1.13. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Gil Vicente and Rio Ave are close on expected goals (1.31–1.13), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
9 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Gil Vicente win
Kick-off
Sun 9 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave

Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 31%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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