Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Brentford vs Sunderland Prediction

Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon · Brentford Community Stadium · Brentford predictions · Sunderland predictions

Published 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

BrentfordvsS

Sunderland

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Brentford win 49%

Brentford win: 49%
Draw: 27%
Sunderland win: 24%

Brentford win %: 49%
Draw %: 27%
Sunderland win %: 24%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Brentford win 49%, from a +78 Elo gap (1547 vs 1469).
2Expected goals 1.76-1.20.
3Modal score 1-1 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
4Antoni Milambo listed out and 2 other absences.

Elo

1547 +78 1469

Brentford vs Sunderland

Premier League table

Out

Antoni Milambo · Brentford
Sepp van den Berg · Brentford
Simon Adingra · Sunderland

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

BrentfordW D D L W1.93-1.85 xG

SunderlandL W W D D1.03-1.21 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 13%

Verdict

Slight lean

Brentford win · 49%

Expected goals

1.76–1.20

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Brentford versus Sunderland
Brentford goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	4%	4%
1	7%	13%	7%	3%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%
3	5%	6%	3%
4	2%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 57%
BTTS %: 60%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal12.8%
2-19.6%
2-08.1%
1-07.3%
0-07.0%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

BBrentford crestBrentford

Out

Antoni Milambo · M · Cruciate Ligament Injury
Sepp van den Berg · D · Groin Injury

SSunderland crestSunderland

Out

Simon Adingra · M · Foot Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

BBrentford crestBrentford4-2-3-1

1Caoimhin KelleherG
20Kristoffer AjerD
22Nathan CollinsD
23Keane Lewis-PotterD
33Michael KayodeD
7Kevin SchadeM
8Mathias JensenM
11Dango OuattaraM
18Mamadou SangareM
27Vitaly JaneltM
9Igor ThiagoF

SSunderland crestSunderland4-2-3-1

22Robin RoefsG
5Daniel BallardD
12Thomas MeunierD
13Luke O'NienD
17Reinildo MandavaD
10Nilson AnguloM
27Noah SadikiM
28Enzo Le FéeM
32Trai HumeM
34Granit XhakaM
9Brian BrobbeyF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

BBrentford crestBrentfordW D D L W

H · Tottenham Hotspur · 22 Aug 20263-03.87-0.57 xG
A · Liverpool FC · 24 May 20261-11.56-3.04 xG
H · Crystal Palace · 17 May 20262-21.71-1.72 xG
A · Manchester City · 9 May 20260-30.24-2.98 xG
H · West Ham United · 2 May 20263-02.27-0.92 xG

SSunderland crestSunderlandL W W D D

A · Ipswich Town · 22 Aug 20261-20.66-1.80 xG
H · Chelsea · 24 May 20262-11.84-0.89 xG
A · Everton · 17 May 20263-10.76-1.04 xG
H · Manchester United · 9 May 20260-01.25-0.62 xG
A · Wolverhampton · 2 May 20261-10.66-1.72 xG

How to read the Brentford vs Sunderland probabilities

Brentford vs Sunderland (Premier League, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Brentford win 49%. Expected goals are 1.76–1.20. Modal score 1-1 (13%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Brentford holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.76–1.20). That shows up as Brentford win at 49%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Brentford win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Brentford vs Sunderland

Who is favourite for Brentford vs Sunderland?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Brentford win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 27%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Brentford vs Sunderland?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.