Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction

Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon · Craven Cottage · Fulham predictions · Crystal Palace predictions

Published 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

FulhamvsCP

Crystal Palace

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Fulham win 48%

Fulham win: 48%
Draw: 29%
Crystal Palace win: 24%

Fulham win %: 48%
Draw %: 29%
Crystal Palace win %: 24%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Fulham win 48%, from a +5 Elo gap (1514 vs 1508).
2Expected goals 1.63-1.11.
3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
4Tom Cairney listed out and 2 other absences.

Elo

1514 +5 1508

Fulham vs Crystal Palace

Premier League table

Out

Tom Cairney · Fulham
Chadi Riad · Crystal Palace
Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 3-4-2-1

Last 5

FulhamL W D L L1.29-1.60 xG

Crystal PalaceL L D L D1.59-1.72 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Fulham win · 48%

Expected goals

1.63–1.11

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Fulham versus Crystal Palace
Fulham goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	5%	4%
1	9%	14%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	5%	5%	3%
4		2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 52%
BTTS %: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal13.6%
2-19.5%
2-08.6%
1-08.6%
0-08.4%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

FFulham crestFulham

Out

Tom Cairney · M · Knee Injury

Doubtful

Luc De Fougerolles · D · Knock Injury

CPCrystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

Out

Chadi Riad · D · Knee Injury
Ismaïla Sarr · F · Groin Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

FFulham crestFulham4-2-3-1

1Bernd LenoG
3Calvin BasseyD
4Jorge CuencaD
21Timothy CastagneD
33Antonee RobinsonD
8César PalaciosM
14Oscar BobbM
16Sander BergeM
17Alex IwobiM
24Joshua KingM
7Gonzalo GarcíaF

CPCrystal Palace crestCrystal Palace3-4-2-1

1Dean HendersonG
4Chadi RiadD
6Jaydee CanvotD
26Chris RichardsD
2Daniel MuñozM
3Tyrick MitchellM
18Daichi KamadaM
20Adam WhartonM
9Eddie NketiahF
11Dwight McNeilF
14Jean-Philippe MatetaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FFulham crestFulhamL W D L L

H · Chelsea · 24 Aug 20262-31.33-2.24 xG
H · Newcastle United · 24 May 20262-01.81-0.31 xG
A · Wolverhampton · 17 May 20261-11.59-1.40 xG
H · Bournemouth · 9 May 20260-11.33-0.82 xG
A · Arsenal · 2 May 20260-30.37-3.23 xG

CPCrystal Palace crestCrystal PalaceL L D L D

A · Everton · 22 Aug 20260-21.96-1.12 xG
H · Arsenal · 24 May 20261-20.98-2.53 xG
A · Brentford · 17 May 20262-21.72-1.71 xG
A · Manchester City · 13 May 20260-30.73-1.66 xG
H · Everton · 10 May 20262-22.56-1.59 xG

How to read the Fulham vs Crystal Palace probabilities

Fulham vs Crystal Palace (Premier League, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Fulham win 48%. Expected goals are 1.63–1.11. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Fulham holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.63–1.11). That shows up as Fulham win at 48%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Fulham win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Fulham vs Crystal Palace

Who is favourite for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Fulham win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 29%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.