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Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Leeds United vs Brentford Prediction

· Elland Road · Leeds United predictions · Brentford predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

LULeeds United crestLeeds UnitedvsBBrentford crestBrentford

Win probabilities

Balanced

Brentford win 37%

Leeds United win
34%
Draw
29%
Brentford win
37%
Leeds United win %
34%
Draw %
29%
Brentford win %
37%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Brentford win 37%, from a -53 Elo gap (1494 vs 1547).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.38-1.44.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Ilia Gruev listed out and 3 other absences.
Elo

1494 -53 1547

Leeds United vs Brentford

Premier League table
Out
  • Ilia Gruev · Leeds United
  • Mateo Joseph · Leeds United
  • Antoni Milambo · Brentford
  • Sepp van den Berg · Brentford
XI

Confirmed

3-4-2-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Leeds UnitedW L W D W1.09-1.63 xG

BrentfordW D D L W1.93-1.85 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Balanced

Brentford win · 37%

Expected goals

1.38–1.44

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Leeds United versus Brentford
Leeds United goals012345
08%7%6%3%
16%14%9%4%
26%8%6%3%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
53%
BTTS %
59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.9%
  2. 1-28.5%
  3. 2-18.2%
  4. 0-08.0%
  5. 0-16.6%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

LULeeds United crestLeeds United

Out

  • Ilia Gruev · M · Meniscus Injury
  • Mateo Joseph · F · Knee Injury

BBrentford crestBrentford

Out

  • Antoni Milambo · M · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Sepp van den Berg · D · Groin Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

LULeeds United crestLeeds United3-4-2-1

  1. 1James TraffordG
  2. 5Tarik MuharemovićD
  3. 6Joe RodonD
  4. 15Jaka BijolD
  5. 2Jayden BogleM
  6. 4Ethan AmpaduM
  7. 18Anton StachM
  8. 24James JustinM
  9. 9Dominic Calvert-LewinF
  10. 11Brenden AaronsonF
  11. 19Noah OkaforF

BBrentford crestBrentford4-2-3-1

  1. 1Caoimhin KelleherG
  2. 20Kristoffer AjerD
  3. 22Nathan CollinsD
  4. 23Keane Lewis-PotterD
  5. 33Michael KayodeD
  6. 7Kevin SchadeM
  7. 18Mamadou SangareM
  8. 19Jaidon AnthonyM
  9. 24Mikkel DamsgaardM
  10. 27Vitaly JaneltM
  11. 9Igor ThiagoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

LULeeds United crestLeeds UnitedW L W D W

  • A · Nottingham Forest · 22 Aug 20261-00.47-0.66 xG
  • A · West Ham United · 24 May 20260-31.59-2.61 xG
  • H · Brighton & Hove Albion · 17 May 20261-00.39-3.06 xG
  • A · Tottenham Hotspur · 11 May 20261-11.34-1.27 xG
  • H · Burnley · 1 May 20263-11.64-0.57 xG

BBrentford crestBrentfordW D D L W

  • H · Tottenham Hotspur · 22 Aug 20263-03.87-0.57 xG
  • A · Liverpool FC · 24 May 20261-11.56-3.04 xG
  • H · Crystal Palace · 17 May 20262-21.71-1.72 xG
  • A · Manchester City · 9 May 20260-30.24-2.98 xG
  • H · West Ham United · 2 May 20263-02.27-0.92 xG

How to read the Leeds United vs Brentford probabilities

Leeds United vs Brentford (Premier League, 30 Aug 2026): Balanced — Brentford win 37%. Expected goals are 1.38–1.44. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Leeds United and Brentford are close on expected goals (1.38–1.44), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Brentford win
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Leeds United vs Brentford

Who is favourite for Leeds United vs Brentford?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Brentford win at 37%. Home 34%, draw 29%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Leeds United vs Brentford?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Leeds United vs Brentford go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Leeds United vs Brentford?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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