Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction

Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Lisbon · Stadium of Light · Sunderland predictions · Fulham predictions

Published 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

SunderlandvsF

Fulham

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Sunderland win 43%

Sunderland win: 43%
Draw: 29%
Fulham win: 29%

Sunderland win %: 43%
Draw %: 29%
Fulham win %: 29%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Sunderland win 43%, from a -44 Elo gap (1469 vs 1514).
2Expected goals 1.57-1.26.
3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
4Dayann Methalie suspended and 2 other absences.

Elo

1469 -44 1514

Sunderland vs Fulham

Premier League table

Out

Dayann Methalie · Sunderland
Simon Adingra · Sunderland
Tom Cairney · Fulham

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

SunderlandL W W D D1.03-1.21 xG

FulhamL W D L L1.29-1.60 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Sunderland win · 43%

Expected goals

1.57–1.26

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sunderland versus Fulham
Sunderland goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	5%	5%
1	7%	14%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 54%
BTTS %: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal13.6%
2-19.2%
0-07.8%
1-27.4%
1-07.3%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

SSunderland crestSunderland

Out

Simon Adingra · M · Foot Injury

Suspended

Dayann Methalie · M · yellow card accumulation suspension

FFulham crestFulham

Out

Tom Cairney · M · Knee Injury

Doubtful

Luc De Fougerolles · D · Knock Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

SSunderland crestSunderland4-2-3-1

22Robin RoefsG
5Daniel BallardD
12Thomas MeunierD
17Reinildo MandavaD
20Nordi MukieleD
10Nilson AnguloM
27Noah SadikiM
28Enzo Le FéeM
32Trai HumeM
34Granit XhakaM
9Brian BrobbeyF

FFulham crestFulham4-2-3-1

1Bernd LenoG
3Calvin BasseyD
5Joachim AndersenD
21Timothy CastagneD
33Antonee RobinsonD
8César PalaciosM
14Oscar BobbM
16Sander BergeM
17Alex IwobiM
24Joshua KingM
7Gonzalo GarcíaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SSunderland crestSunderlandL W W D D

A · Ipswich Town · 22 Aug 20261-20.66-1.80 xG
H · Chelsea · 24 May 20262-11.84-0.89 xG
A · Everton · 17 May 20263-10.76-1.04 xG
H · Manchester United · 9 May 20260-01.25-0.62 xG
A · Wolverhampton · 2 May 20261-10.66-1.72 xG

FFulham crestFulhamL W D L L

H · Chelsea · 24 Aug 20262-31.33-2.24 xG
H · Newcastle United · 24 May 20262-01.81-0.31 xG
A · Wolverhampton · 17 May 20261-11.59-1.40 xG
H · Bournemouth · 9 May 20260-11.33-0.82 xG
A · Arsenal · 2 May 20260-30.37-3.23 xG

How to read the Sunderland vs Fulham probabilities

Sunderland vs Fulham (Premier League, 30 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Sunderland win 43%. Expected goals are 1.57–1.26. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Sunderland holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.57–1.26). That shows up as Sunderland win at 43%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 54% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Sunderland win
Kick-off: Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Sunderland vs Fulham

Who is favourite for Sunderland vs Fulham?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sunderland win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 29%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sunderland vs Fulham?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.