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Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Bournemouth vs Everton Prediction

· Vitality Stadium · Bournemouth predictions · Everton predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit
BBournemouth crest

Bournemouth

1–1

Draw

EEverton crest

Everton

1X2

Bournemouth win

44%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score hit

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Bournemouth win · 44%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Hit

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

BBournemouth crestBournemouthvsEEverton crestEverton

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Bournemouth win 44%

Bournemouth win
44%
Draw
29%
Everton win
27%
Bournemouth win %
44%

Predicted

Draw %
29%

Result

Everton win %
27%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Bournemouth win 44%, from a +48 Elo gap (1570 vs 1522).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.59-1.20.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Amine Adli listed out and 5 other absences.
Elo

1570 +48 1522

Bournemouth vs Everton

Premier League table
Out
  • Amine Adli · Bournemouth
  • Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth
  • Christian Nørgaard · Everton
  • Tim Iroegbunam · Everton
XI

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

BournemouthL D D W W1.35-1.54 xG

EvertonW L L D D1.38-1.59 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Bournemouth win · 44% · Miss

Expected goals

1.59–1.20

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Bournemouth versus Everton
Bournemouth goals012345
08%5%4%
18%14%7%3%
28%9%6%2%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
53%

Under · 2 goals · Miss

BTTS %
58%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1ModalResult13.7%
  2. 2-19.3%
  3. 0-08.1%
  4. 1-07.8%
  5. 2-07.7%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

BBournemouth crestBournemouth

Out

  • Amine Adli · F · Calf Injury
  • Eli Junior Kroupi · F · Foot Injury
  • Julián Araujo · D · Thigh Injury
  • Veljko Milosavljević · D · Knock Injury

EEverton crestEverton

Out

  • Christian Nørgaard · M · Muscle Injury
  • Tim Iroegbunam · M · Groin Injury

Doubtful

  • Hayden Hackney · M · Knock Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

BBournemouth crestBournemouth4-2-3-1

  1. 1Đorđe PetrovićG
  2. 3Adrien TruffertD
  3. 5James HillD
  4. 14António SilvaD
  5. 15Adam SmithD
  6. 8Alex ScottM
  7. 10Ryan ChristieM
  8. 16Marcus TavernierM
  9. 19Justin KluivertM
  10. 37RayanM
  11. 9EvanilsonF

EEverton crestEverton4-2-3-1

  1. 1Jordan PickfordG
  2. 6James TarkowskiD
  3. 16Vitaliy MykolenkoD
  4. 32Jarrad BranthwaiteD
  5. 8Kiernan Dewsbury-HallM
  6. 10Iliman NdiayeM
  7. 34Merlin RöhlM
  8. 37James GarnerM
  9. 45Harrison ArmstrongM
  10. 11Thierno BarryF
  11. 19Tyrique GeorgeF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

BBournemouth crestBournemouthL D D W W

  • A · Manchester City · 23 Aug 20261-20.65-2.25 xG
  • A · Nottingham Forest · 24 May 20261-10.95-1.73 xG
  • H · Manchester City · 19 May 20261-12.25-1.48 xG
  • A · Fulham · 9 May 20261-00.82-1.33 xG
  • H · Crystal Palace · 3 May 20263-02.08-0.89 xG

EEverton crestEvertonW L L D D

  • H · Crystal Palace · 22 Aug 20262-01.12-1.96 xG
  • A · Tottenham Hotspur · 24 May 20260-10.41-1.15 xG
  • H · Sunderland · 17 May 20261-31.04-0.76 xG
  • A · Crystal Palace · 10 May 20262-21.59-2.56 xG
  • H · Manchester City · 4 May 20263-32.72-1.54 xG

How to read the Bournemouth vs Everton probabilities

Bournemouth vs Everton (Premier League, 29 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Bournemouth win 44%. Expected goals are 1.59–1.20. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Bournemouth holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.59–1.20). That shows up as Bournemouth win at 44%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Bournemouth win
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Bournemouth vs Everton

Who is favourite for Bournemouth vs Everton?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Bournemouth win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 29%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Bournemouth vs Everton?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Bournemouth vs Everton go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Bournemouth vs Everton?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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