Skip to main content
E90

Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

Casa Pia vs Moreirense Prediction

· Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Casa Pia predictions · Moreirense predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

CPCasa Pia crestCasa PiavsMMoreirense crestMoreirense

Win probabilities

Balanced

Casa Pia win 34%

Casa Pia win
34%
Draw
33%
Moreirense win
34%
Casa Pia win %
34%
Draw %
33%
Moreirense win %
34%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Casa Pia win 34%, from a -50 Elo gap (1422 vs 1472).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.16-1.16.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 16%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Janderson listed out and one other absence.
Elo

1422 -50 1472

Casa Pia vs Moreirense

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Janderson · Moreirense
  • Yan Maranhão · Moreirense
XI

Predicted XI

4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Casa PiaL L L D W0.98-1.57 xG

MoreirenseL D D L W0.79-1.93 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 16%

Verdict

Balanced

Casa Pia win · 34%

Expected goals

1.16–1.16

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Casa Pia versus Moreirense
Casa Pia goals012345
012%9%7%3%
19%16%8%3%
27%8%4%
33%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
41%
BTTS %
49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal15.6%
  2. 0-012.2%
  3. 1-09.1%
  4. 0-19.1%
  5. 2-17.7%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CPCasa Pia crestCasa Pia

No listed absences.

MMoreirense crestMoreirense

Out

  • Janderson · D · Unknown
  • Yan Maranhão · F · Unknown

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

CPCasa Pia crestCasa Pia4-4-2

  1. 31André GomesG
  2. 4João GoulartD
  3. 18André GeraldesD
  4. 43David SousaD
  5. 5Abdu ContéM
  6. 10RochinhaM
  7. 16Selvi ClúaM
  8. 42Sebastián PérezM
  9. 80Lawrence OforiM
  10. 9Henrique AraújoF
  11. 20Alassana JattaF

MMoreirense crestMoreirense4-2-3-1

  1. 13André FerreiraG
  2. 2Leandro SantosD
  3. 26MaracásD
  4. 27KikoD
  5. 66Gilberto BatistaD
  6. 21Rodrigo AlonsoM
  7. 23Nile JohnM
  8. 65Guilherme LiberatoM
  9. 9Alexandre ParsemainF
  10. 11LandersonF
  11. 89Afonso VieiraF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CPCasa Pia crestCasa PiaL L L D W

  • A · Gil Vicente · 24 Aug 20260-20.76-1.74 xG
  • H · Benfica · 17 Aug 20260-70.12-3.04 xG
  • A · CS Marítimo · 8 Aug 20260-10.67-1.39 xG
  • H · Rio Ave · 16 May 20261-12.45-0.75 xG
  • A · Vitória SC · 11 May 20261-00.88-0.94 xG

MMoreirense crestMoreirenseL D D L W

  • A · FC Arouca · 16 Aug 20260-40.49-2.14 xG
  • H · Sporting Braga · 9 Aug 20262-20.22-1.32 xG
  • H · AVS - Futebol SAD · 16 May 20260-01.09-1.98 xG
  • A · Tondela · 11 May 20260-20.29-1.39 xG
  • H · CF Estrela Amadora · 2 May 20263-21.87-2.83 xG

How to read the Casa Pia vs Moreirense probabilities

Casa Pia vs Moreirense (Liga Portugal, 30 Aug 2026): Balanced — Casa Pia win 34%. Expected goals are 1.16–1.16. Modal score 1-1 (16%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Casa Pia and Moreirense are close on expected goals (1.16–1.16), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 16%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 41%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
24 Aug 2026, 20:32 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Casa Pia win
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Casa Pia vs Moreirense

Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Casa Pia win at 34%. Home 34%, draw 33%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 16% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Casa Pia vs Moreirense go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 41% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

Related predictions

All Liga Portugal predictions