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Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia Prediction

· Estádio da Madeira · CD Nacional predictions · Estoril Praia predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit
NCD Nacional crest

CD Nacional

2–0

CD Nacional won

EPEstoril Praia crest

Estoril Praia

1X2

CD Nacional win

41%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted CD Nacional win · 41%

Actual CD Nacional won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

NCD Nacional crestCD NacionalvsEPEstoril Praia crestEstoril Praia

Win probabilities

Slight lean

CD Nacional win 41%

CD Nacional win
41%
Draw
31%
Estoril Praia win
28%
CD Nacional win %
41%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
31%
Estoril Praia win %
28%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: CD Nacional win 41%, from a -70 Elo gap (1397 vs 1467).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.38-1.10.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4José Gomes listed out.
Elo

1397 -70 1467

CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • José Gomes · CD Nacional
XI

Confirmed

3-4-2-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

CD NacionalD W L L W1.25-1.50 xG

Estoril PraiaD L D D L0.99-1.66 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

CD Nacional win · 41% · Hit

Expected goals

1.38–1.10

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CD Nacional versus Estoril Praia
CD Nacional goals012345
011%7%5%
19%15%7%3%
28%9%5%
34%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
45%

Under · 2 goals · Hit

BTTS %
52%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.9%
  2. 0-010.6%
  3. 1-09.4%
  4. 2-18.8%
  5. 2-0Result8.0%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

NCD Nacional crestCD Nacional

Out

  • José Gomes · D · Unknown

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril Praia

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

NCD Nacional crestCD Nacional3-4-2-1

  1. 1Renato MarinG
  2. 6Matheus DiasD
  3. 34Léo SantosD
  4. 38Ze VitorD
  5. 7Markus JensenM
  6. 22Filipe SoaresM
  7. 28LizieroM
  8. 52Wesley GasolinaM
  9. 8Miguel BaezaF
  10. 10Daniel JúniorF
  11. 99Pablo Messias CardozoF

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril Praia4-2-3-1

  1. 1Joel RoblesG
  2. 2Ricard SánchezD
  3. 3Fernando MedranoD
  4. 4FerroD
  5. 15Ismael Sierra ArnalD
  6. 5Antef TsounguiM
  7. 7André LacximicantM
  8. 8XekaM
  9. 12João CarvalhoM
  10. 99Rafik GuitaneM
  11. 14Yanis BegraouiF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

NCD Nacional crestCD NacionalD W L L W

  • A · Santa Clara · 10 Aug 20262-21.23-1.43 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 16 May 20262-00.94-1.33 xG
  • A · Santa Clara · 11 May 20260-20.92-1.53 xG
  • H · AVS - Futebol SAD · 2 May 20261-21.83-1.64 xG
  • A · Tondela · 25 Apr 20262-01.32-1.56 xG

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaD L D D L

  • H · Famalicão · 7 Aug 20261-11.06-1.47 xG
  • H · Benfica · 16 May 20261-31.52-4.15 xG
  • A · FC Alverca · 10 May 20261-10.87-1.15 xG
  • A · Sporting Braga · 3 May 20261-11.06-0.40 xG
  • H · Famalicão · 26 Apr 20260-10.44-1.15 xG

How to read the CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia probabilities

CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia (Liga Portugal, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean — CD Nacional win 41%. Expected goals are 1.38–1.10. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–0.

CD Nacional holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.38–1.10). That shows up as CD Nacional win at 41%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 45% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · CD Nacional win
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia

Who is favourite for CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CD Nacional win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 31%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CD Nacional vs Estoril Praia?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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