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La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Prediction

· Estadio Abanca Balaídos · Celta Vigo predictions · Osasuna predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 1/4 checks hit
CVCelta Vigo crest

Celta Vigo

1–2

Osasuna won

OOsasuna crest

Osasuna

1X2

Celta Vigo win

46%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Celta Vigo win · 46%

Actual Osasuna won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta VigovsOOsasuna crestOsasuna

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win 46%

Celta Vigo win
46%
Draw
27%
Osasuna win
28%
Celta Vigo win %
46%

Predicted

Draw %
27%
Osasuna win %
28%

Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Celta Vigo win 46%, from a +55 Elo gap (1525 vs 1469).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.51-1.11.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Borja Iglesias listed out.
Elo

1525 +55 1469

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna

La Liga table
Out
  • Borja Iglesias · Celta Vigo
XI

Confirmed

3-4-3 / 5-4-1

Last 5

Celta VigoD W D L W0.94-1.51 xG

OsasunaD L L L L1.17-1.38 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 13% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win · 46% · Miss

Expected goals

1.51–1.11

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Celta Vigo versus Osasuna
Celta Vigo goals012345
08%8%5%
111%13%7%3%
28%9%5%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
49%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS %
53%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal12.7%
  2. 1-010.5%
  3. 2-19.2%
  4. 2-08.3%
  5. 0-07.8%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

Out

  • Borja Iglesias · F · Muscle Injury

OOsasuna crestOsasuna

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo3-4-3

  1. 13Ionuț RaduG
  2. 3Marcos AlonsoD
  3. 20Javi RodríguezD
  4. 29Yoel LagoD
  5. 6Ilaix MoribaM
  6. 8Miguel RománM
  7. 17Javier RuedaM
  8. 22Javi GalánM
  9. 10Iago AspasF
  10. 11Pablo DuránF
  11. 19Williot SwedbergF

OOsasuna crestOsasuna5-4-1

  1. 1Sergio HerreraG
  2. 5Jorge HerrandoD
  3. 23Abel BretonesD
  4. 24Alejandro CatenaD
  5. 27Iñigo ArguibideD
  6. 29Asier OsambelaD
  7. 6Lucas TorróM
  8. 7Jon MoncayolaM
  9. 11Kike BarjaM
  10. 21Jonathan DubasinM
  11. 9Raúl García de HaroF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta VigoD W D L W

  • A · Valencia · 22 Aug 20260-00.66-0.58 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 23 May 20261-01.59-0.80 xG
  • A · Athletic Club · 17 May 20261-10.15-2.49 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 12 May 20262-32.18-1.52 xG
  • A · Atlético Madrid · 9 May 20261-00.13-2.18 xG

OOsasuna crestOsasunaD L L L L

  • H · Levante UD · 24 Aug 20260-00.67-1.31 xG
  • A · Getafe · 23 May 20260-10.51-0.27 xG
  • H · Espanyol · 17 May 20261-21.72-0.79 xG
  • H · Atlético Madrid · 12 May 20261-22.30-1.56 xG
  • A · Levante UD · 8 May 20262-30.63-2.99 xG

How to read the Celta Vigo vs Osasuna probabilities

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna (La Liga, 27 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Celta Vigo win 46%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.11. Modal score 1-1 (13%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–2.

Celta Vigo holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.51–1.11). That shows up as Celta Vigo win at 46%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
27 Aug 2026, 09:04 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Celta Vigo win
Kick-off
Thu 27 Aug, 19:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Celta Vigo vs Osasuna

Who is favourite for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Celta Vigo win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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