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La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe Prediction

· Estadio de Mendizorroza · Deportivo Alavés predictions · Getafe predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 2/4 checks hit
DADeportivo Alavés crest

Deportivo Alavés

3–0

Deportivo Alavés won

GGetafe crest

Getafe

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

46%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Deportivo Alavés win · 46%

Actual Deportivo Alavés won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-0

Actual 3–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésvsGGetafe crestGetafe

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win 46%

Deportivo Alavés win
46%
Draw
28%
Getafe win
26%
Deportivo Alavés win %
46%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
28%
Getafe win %
26%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Deportivo Alavés win 46%, from a -14 Elo gap (1464 vs 1479).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.32-0.92.
  3. 3Modal score 1-0 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Christantus Uche listed out and one other absence.
Elo

1464 -14 1479

Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe

La Liga table
Out
  • Christantus Uche · Getafe
  • Juanmi · Getafe
XI

Confirmed

3-5-2 / 3-5-2

Last 5

Deportivo AlavésL W W D L1.19-0.93 xG

GetafeW L W D L0.96-0.62 xG

Modal score

1-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Deportivo Alavés win · 46% · Hit

Expected goals

1.32–0.92

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo Alavés versus Getafe
Deportivo Alavés goals012345
011%10%5%
114%13%6%
29%9%4%
34%4%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
39%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS %
44%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-0Modal14.1%
  2. 1-112.9%
  3. 0-010.7%
  4. 0-19.9%
  5. 2-09.3%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés

Doubtful

  • Lucas Boyé · F · Muscle Injury

GGetafe crestGetafe

Out

  • Christantus Uche · F · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Juanmi · F · Knee Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés3-5-2

  1. 1Antonio SiveraG
  2. 14Nahuel TenagliaD
  3. 16Ville KoskiD
  4. 17Jonny OttoD
  5. 4Denis SuárezM
  6. 7Ángel PérezM
  7. 8Antonio BlancoM
  8. 19Pablo IbáñezM
  9. 21Abderrahman RebbachM
  10. 11Toni MartínezF
  11. 20Aitor MañasF

GGetafe crestGetafe3-5-2

  1. 13David SoriaG
  2. 2DjenéD
  3. 5Abdel AbqarD
  4. 24Zaid RomeroD
  5. 3DavinchiM
  6. 6Mario MartínM
  7. 11Ramón TerratsM
  8. 17Kiko FemeníaM
  9. 23Orel MangalaM
  10. 10Martín SatrianoF
  11. 21Andrés GarcíaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésL W W D L

  • H · Rayo Vallecano · 23 May 20261-21.63-1.34 xG
  • A · Real Oviedo · 17 May 20261-01.06-0.33 xG
  • H · FC Barcelona · 13 May 20261-00.72-0.60 xG
  • A · Elche · 9 May 20261-12.05-1.39 xG
  • H · Athletic Club · 2 May 20262-40.49-0.97 xG

GGetafe crestGetafeW L W D L

  • H · Osasuna · 23 May 20261-00.27-0.51 xG
  • A · Elche · 17 May 20260-10.11-0.66 xG
  • H · Mallorca · 13 May 20263-11.58-0.41 xG
  • A · Real Oviedo · 10 May 20260-01.36-0.54 xG
  • H · Rayo Vallecano · 3 May 20260-21.49-0.98 xG

How to read the Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe probabilities

Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe (La Liga, 15 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Deportivo Alavés win 46%. Expected goals are 1.32–0.92. Modal score 1-0 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 3–0.

Deportivo Alavés holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.32–0.92). That shows up as Deportivo Alavés win at 46%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 39%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Deportivo Alavés win
Kick-off
Sat 15 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe

Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 28%, away 26%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe?

1-0 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 39% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe?

BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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