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La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal Prediction

· Estadio de Mendizorroza · Deportivo Alavés predictions · Villarreal predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 2/4 checks hit
DADeportivo Alavés crest

Deportivo Alavés

1–0

Deportivo Alavés won

VVillarreal crest

Villarreal

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

37%Hit

Verdict

Balanced

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Deportivo Alavés win · 37%

Actual Deportivo Alavés won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésvsVVillarreal crestVillarreal

Win probabilities

Balanced

Deportivo Alavés win 37%

Deportivo Alavés win
37%
Draw
29%
Villarreal win
35%
Deportivo Alavés win %
37%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
29%
Villarreal win %
35%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Deportivo Alavés win 37%, from a -142 Elo gap (1473 vs 1616).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.24-1.20.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

1473 -142 1616

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal

La Liga table
Out

None listed

XI

Confirmed

4-4-2 / 4-4-2

Last 5

Deportivo AlavésD W L W W1.47-0.59 xG

VillarrealD D W L L1.75-1.26 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Deportivo Alavés win · 37% · Hit

Expected goals

1.24–1.20

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo Alavés versus Villarreal
Deportivo Alavés goals012345
09%10%6%3%
110%14%8%3%
27%8%5%
33%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
44%

Under · 1 goals · Hit

BTTS %
50%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.6%
  2. 1-0Result10.2%
  3. 0-19.8%
  4. 0-09.3%
  5. 2-18.0%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés4-4-2

  1. 1Antonio SiveraG
  2. 7Ángel PérezD
  3. 14Nahuel TenagliaD
  4. 16Ville KoskiD
  5. 17Jonny OttoD
  6. 8Antonio BlancoM
  7. 18Mikel RodriguezM
  8. 19Pablo IbáñezM
  9. 21Abderrahman RebbachM
  10. 11Toni MartínezF
  11. 15Lucas BoyéF

VVillarreal crestVillarreal4-4-2

  1. 1Luiz JúniorG
  2. 8Juan FoythD
  3. 12Renato VeigaD
  4. 15Santiago MouriñoD
  5. 20Carlos RomeroD
  6. 14Santi ComesañaM
  7. 17Tajon BuchananM
  8. 18Pape GueyeM
  9. 19Nicolas PépéM
  10. 7Gerard MorenoF
  11. 9Georges MikautadzeF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésD W L W W

  • A · Rayo Vallecano · 20 Aug 20261-12.00-0.42 xG
  • H · Getafe · 15 Aug 20263-01.93-0.24 xG
  • H · Rayo Vallecano · 23 May 20261-21.63-1.34 xG
  • A · Real Oviedo · 17 May 20261-01.06-0.33 xG
  • H · FC Barcelona · 13 May 20261-00.72-0.60 xG

VVillarreal crestVillarrealD D W L L

  • A · Atlético Madrid · 23 Aug 20262-23.60-0.78 xG
  • A · Real Racing Club · 16 Aug 20262-20.87-2.01 xG
  • H · Atlético Madrid · 24 May 20265-12.48-1.16 xG
  • A · Rayo Vallecano · 17 May 20260-20.97-1.49 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 13 May 20262-30.83-0.87 xG

How to read the Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal probabilities

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal (La Liga, 28 Aug 2026): Balanced — Deportivo Alavés win 37%. Expected goals are 1.24–1.20. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Deportivo Alavés and Villarreal are close on expected goals (1.24–1.20), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Deportivo Alavés win
Kick-off
Fri 28 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal

Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 29%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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