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La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche Prediction

· Estadio Riazor · Deportivo de A Coruña predictions · Elche predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 1/4 checks hit
DDDeportivo de A Coruña crest

Deportivo de A Coruña

1–1

Draw

EElche crest

Elche

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

53%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 2-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Deportivo de A Coruña win · 53%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 2-1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A CoruñavsEElche crestElche

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Deportivo de A Coruña win 53% · Open game · Both likely

Deportivo de A Coruña win
53%
Draw
21%
Elche win
26%
Deportivo de A Coruña win %
53%

Predicted

Draw %
21%

Result

Elche win %
26%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Deportivo de A Coruña win 53%, from a -44 Elo gap (1391 vs 1435).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.16-1.49.
  3. 3Modal score 2-1 at 9%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 71%.
  5. 5Noé Carrillo listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1391 -44 1435

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche

La Liga table
Out
  • Noé Carrillo · Deportivo de A Coruña
  • Grady Diangana · Elche
  • Yago Santiago · Elche
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 5-4-1

Last 5

Deportivo de A CoruñaL L D L D0.00-0.00 xG

ElcheD W L D L0.87-1.12 xG

Modal score

2-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 9% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Deportivo de A Coruña win · 53% · Miss

Expected goals

2.16–1.49

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo de A Coruña versus Elche
Deportivo de A Coruña goals012345
03%4%3%
16%8%6%3%
26%9%7%3%
34%7%5%2%
42%4%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
71%

Under · 2 goals · Miss

BTTS %
69%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 2-1Modal9.0%
  2. 1-1Result8.3%
  3. 2-26.7%
  4. 3-16.5%
  5. 1-26.2%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña

Out

  • Noé Carrillo · M · Muscle Injury

Doubtful

  • Yeremay Hernández · F · Muscle Injury

EElche crestElche

Out

  • Grady Diangana · M · Knee Injury
  • Yago Santiago · M · Knee Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña4-2-3-1

  1. 13Leo RománG
  2. 4Lucas NoubiD
  3. 12Giacomo QuagliataD
  4. 22Bright EdeD
  5. 23Ximo NavarroD
  6. 2Adrià AltimiraM
  7. 16Lorenzo AmatucciM
  8. 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
  9. 21Mario SorianoM
  10. 32Bil NsongoM
  11. 7Pierre-Emerick AubameyangF

EElche crestElche5-4-1

  1. 1Matías DituroG
  2. 2Buba SangaréD
  3. 5Federico RedondoD
  4. 11Germán ValeraD
  5. 22David AffengruberD
  6. 23Víctor ChustD
  7. 8Marc AguadoM
  8. 12Gonzalo VillarM
  9. 16Martim NetoM
  10. 29Ali HouaryM
  11. 14Fernando NiñoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A CoruñaL L D L D

  • A · Valencia · 20 May 20181-20.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Villarreal · 12 May 20182-40.00-0.00 xG
  • A · Celta Vigo · 5 May 20181-10.00-0.00 xG
  • H · FC Barcelona · 29 Apr 20182-40.00-0.00 xG
  • A · Leganés · 20 Apr 20180-00.00-0.00 xG

EElche crestElcheD W L D L

  • A · Girona FC · 23 May 20261-10.18-0.58 xG
  • H · Getafe · 17 May 20261-00.66-0.11 xG
  • A · Real Betis · 12 May 20261-20.40-1.80 xG
  • H · Deportivo Alavés · 9 May 20261-11.39-2.05 xG
  • A · Celta Vigo · 3 May 20261-31.71-1.05 xG

How to read the Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche probabilities

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche (La Liga, 17 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Deportivo de A Coruña win 53%. Expected goals are 2.16–1.49. Modal score 2-1 (9%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Deportivo de A Coruña holds a modest expected-goals edge (2.16–1.49). That shows up as Deportivo de A Coruña win at 53%, not a lock.

The modal score 2-1 carries 9%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 71%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 69%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Deportivo de A Coruña win
Kick-off
Mon 17 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche

Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo de A Coruña win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 21%, away 26%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche?

2-1 is the modal scoreline at 9% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 71% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche?

BTTS is 69%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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