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La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia Prediction

· Estadio Riazor · Deportivo de A Coruña predictions · Valencia predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A CoruñavsVValencia crestValencia

Win probabilities

Balanced

Valencia win 40% · Open game · Both likely

Deportivo de A Coruña win
36%
Draw
24%
Valencia win
40%
Deportivo de A Coruña win %
36%
Draw %
24%
Valencia win %
40%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Valencia win 40%, from a -109 Elo gap (1391 vs 1500).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.60-1.71.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 10%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 64%.
  5. 5Adama Traoré listed out and 5 other absences.
Elo

1391 -109 1500

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia

La Liga table
Out
  • Adama Traoré · Deportivo de A Coruña
  • Noé Carrillo · Deportivo de A Coruña
  • Guido Rodríguez · Valencia
  • José Copete · Valencia
XI

Predicted XI

3-4-2-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Deportivo de A CoruñaD D L L D0.29-0.64 xG

ValenciaL D W W D1.10-0.97 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 10%

Verdict

Balanced

Valencia win · 40%

Expected goals

1.60–1.71

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo de A Coruña versus Valencia
Deportivo de A Coruña goals012345
04%6%5%3%
15%10%9%5%2%
25%8%7%4%
33%4%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
64%
BTTS %
66%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal10.5%
  2. 1-28.5%
  3. 2-18.0%
  4. 2-26.8%
  5. 0-15.8%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña

Out

  • Adama Traoré · F · Physical Discomfort
  • Noé Carrillo · M · Muscle Injury

VValencia crestValencia

Out

  • Guido Rodríguez · M · Muscle Injury
  • José Copete · D · Meniscus Injury
  • Justin De Haas · D · Ankle Injury
  • Pablo Maffeo · D · Hamstring Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña3-4-2-1

  1. 13Leo RománG
  2. 2Adrià AltimiraD
  3. 4Lucas NoubiD
  4. 12Giacomo QuagliataD
  5. 15Miguel LoureiroD
  6. 23Ximo NavarroD
  7. 16Lorenzo AmatucciM
  8. 21Mario SorianoM
  9. 7Pierre-Emerick AubameyangF
  10. 18Jonathan Asp JensenF
  11. 32Bil NsongoF

VValencia crestValencia4-2-3-1

  1. 1Stole DimitrievskiG
  2. 4Mouctar DiakhabyD
  3. 5César TárregaD
  4. 14José Luis GayàD
  5. 20Arnau MartínezD
  6. 8Javier GuerraM
  7. 18PepeluM
  8. 23Filip UgrinićM
  9. 39Ryunosuke SatoM
  10. 6Umar SadiqF
  11. 7Arnaut DanjumaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

DDDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A CoruñaD D L L D

  • A · Málaga CF · 24 Aug 20261-11.12-1.95 xG
  • H · Elche · 17 Aug 20261-10.34-1.23 xG
  • A · Valencia · 20 May 20181-20.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Villarreal · 12 May 20182-40.00-0.00 xG
  • A · Celta Vigo · 5 May 20181-10.00-0.00 xG

VValencia crestValenciaL D W W D

  • H · Real Betis · 25 Aug 20260-11.12-0.71 xG
  • H · Celta Vigo · 22 Aug 20260-00.58-0.66 xG
  • H · FC Barcelona · 23 May 20263-11.35-1.18 xG
  • A · Real Sociedad · 17 May 20264-31.67-1.15 xG
  • H · Rayo Vallecano · 14 May 20261-10.76-1.16 xG

How to read the Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia probabilities

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia (La Liga, 30 Aug 2026): Balanced — Valencia win 40%. Expected goals are 1.60–1.71. Modal score 1-1 (10%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Deportivo de A Coruña and Valencia are close on expected goals (1.60–1.71), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 64%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 66%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Valencia win
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia

Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Valencia win at 40%. Home 36%, draw 24%, away 40%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 10% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Valencia?

BTTS is 66%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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