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La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Espanyol vs Real Madrid Prediction

· RCDE Stadium · Espanyol predictions · Real Madrid predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit
EEspanyol crest

Espanyol

1–2

Real Madrid won

RMReal Madrid crest

Real Madrid

1X2

Real Madrid win

55%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 0-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Real Madrid win · 55%

Actual Real Madrid won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 0-1

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

EEspanyol crestEspanyolvsRMReal Madrid crestReal Madrid

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Real Madrid win 55%

Espanyol win
21%
Draw
24%
Real Madrid win
55%
Espanyol win %
21%
Draw %
24%
Real Madrid win %
55%

Predicted · Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Real Madrid win 55%, from a -285 Elo gap (1453 vs 1738).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.95-1.70.
  3. 3Modal score 0-1 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Leandro Cabrera suspended and 7 other absences.
Elo

1453 -285 1738

Espanyol vs Real Madrid

La Liga table
Out
  • Leandro Cabrera · Espanyol
  • Kike García · Espanyol
  • Aurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid
  • Endrick · Real Madrid
XI

Confirmed

4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

EspanyolD W W L L1.16-1.48 xG

Real MadridW W W L W1.44-0.96 xG

Modal score

0-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 12% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Real Madrid win · 55% · Hit

Expected goals

0.95–1.70

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Espanyol versus Real Madrid
Espanyol goals012345
07%12%10%6%2%
17%11%10%5%2%
23%5%5%3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
49%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS %
50%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 0-1Modal12.0%
  2. 1-111.4%
  3. 0-210.2%
  4. 1-2Result9.7%
  5. 0-07.0%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

EEspanyol crestEspanyol

Out

  • Kike García · F · Hamstring Injury

Suspended

  • Leandro Cabrera · D · red card suspension

RMReal Madrid crestReal Madrid

Out

  • Aurélien Tchouaméni · M · Muscle Injury
  • Endrick · F · Muscle Injury
  • Ferland Mendy · D · Ligament Injury
  • Raúl Asencio · D · Muscle Injury
  • Rodrygo · F · ACL Knee Injury
  • Thiago Pitarch · M · Knee Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

EEspanyol crestEspanyol4-4-2

  1. 13Marko DmitrovićG
  2. 5Clemens RiedelD
  3. 14Unai NúñezD
  4. 21Roger HinojoD
  5. 23Omar El HilaliD
  6. 4Urko GonzálezM
  7. 8Edu ExpósitoM
  8. 22Álex CalatravaM
  9. 24Tyrhys DolanM
  10. 9Roberto FernándezF
  11. 28Javier HernándezF

RMReal Madrid crestReal Madrid4-2-3-1

  1. 1Thibaut CourtoisG
  2. 4Dean HuijsenD
  3. 16Ibrahima KonatéD
  4. 18Álvaro CarrerasD
  5. 24Denzel DumfriesD
  6. 5Jude BellinghamM
  7. 7Vinícius JúniorM
  8. 8Federico ValverdeM
  9. 15Arda GülerM
  10. 20Bernardo SilvaM
  11. 10Kylian MbappéF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

EEspanyol crestEspanyolD W W L L

  • H · Real Sociedad · 23 May 20261-12.41-1.40 xG
  • A · Osasuna · 17 May 20262-10.79-1.72 xG
  • H · Athletic Club · 13 May 20262-00.76-0.82 xG
  • A · Sevilla · 9 May 20261-20.61-1.38 xG
  • H · Real Madrid · 3 May 20260-21.21-2.10 xG

RMReal Madrid crestReal MadridW W W L W

  • H · Athletic Club · 23 May 20264-21.90-0.81 xG
  • A · Sevilla · 17 May 20261-01.00-0.72 xG
  • H · Real Oviedo · 14 May 20262-01.36-1.04 xG
  • A · FC Barcelona · 10 May 20260-20.85-1.01 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 3 May 20262-02.10-1.21 xG

How to read the Espanyol vs Real Madrid probabilities

Espanyol vs Real Madrid (La Liga, 22 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Real Madrid win 55%. Expected goals are 0.95–1.70. Modal score 0-1 (12%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–2.

Real Madrid holds a modest expected-goals edge (0.95–1.70). That shows up as Real Madrid win at 55%, not a lock.

The modal score 0-1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Real Madrid win
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Espanyol vs Real Madrid

Who is favourite for Espanyol vs Real Madrid?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Madrid win at 55%. Home 21%, draw 24%, away 55%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Espanyol vs Real Madrid?

0-1 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Espanyol vs Real Madrid go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Espanyol vs Real Madrid?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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