Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

Estoril Praia vs Famalicão Prediction

Fri 7 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon · Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota · Estoril Praia predictions · Famalicão predictions

Published 7 Aug 2026, 12:15 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 3/4 checks hit

Estoril Praia

1–1

Draw

Famalicão

1X2

Famalicão win

45%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score hit

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Famalicão win · 45%

Actual Draw

Modal score

Hit

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Estoril PraiavsF

Famalicão

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Famalicão win 45%

Estoril Praia win: 25%
Draw: 29%
Famalicão win: 45%

Estoril Praia win %: 25%
Draw %: 29%
Famalicão win %: 45%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Famalicão win 45%, from a -93 Elo gap (1466 vs 1559).
2Expected goals 1.08-1.52.
3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.

Elo

1466 -93 1559

Estoril Praia vs Famalicão

Liga Portugal table

Out

None listed

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Estoril PraiaL D D L L0.85-1.53 xG

FamalicãoW D D W D1.15-0.84 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Famalicão win · 45% · Miss

Expected goals

1.08–1.52

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Estoril Praia versus Famalicão
Estoril Praia goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	9%	9%	4%
1	6%	14%	9%	5%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%
3		2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 48%
BTTS %: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1ModalResult14.1%
0-19.4%
0-09.3%
1-29.3%
0-28.6%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril Praia4-2-3-1

1Joel RoblesG
2Ricard SánchezD
3Fernando MedranoD
4FerroD
15Ismael Sierra ArnalD
5Antef TsounguiM
7André LacximicantM
8XekaM
12João CarvalhoM
99Rafik GuitaneM
14Yanis BegraouiF

FFamalicão crestFamalicão4-2-3-1

25Lazar CarevićG
3Léo RealpeD
4Finn van BreemenD
17Rodrigo PinheiroD
28Pedro BondoD
6Tom Van De LooiM
7SorrisoM
10Pedro SantosM
14Mathias De AmorimM
23Gil DiasM
70Georgios KoutsiasF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaL D D L L

H · Benfica · 16 May 20261-31.52-4.15 xG
A · FC Alverca · 10 May 20261-10.87-1.15 xG
A · Sporting Braga · 3 May 20261-11.06-0.40 xG
H · Famalicão · 26 Apr 20260-10.44-1.15 xG
A · Moreirense · 20 Apr 20260-10.35-0.82 xG

FFamalicão crestFamalicãoW D D W D

H · FC Alverca · 16 May 20261-00.52-0.45 xG
A · CF Estrela Amadora · 11 May 20260-01.97-0.26 xG
H · Benfica · 2 May 20262-21.58-1.29 xG
A · Estoril Praia · 26 Apr 20261-01.15-0.44 xG
A · Sporting Braga · 19 Apr 20262-20.51-1.78 xG

How to read the Estoril Praia vs Famalicão probabilities

Estoril Praia vs Famalicão (Liga Portugal, 7 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Famalicão win 45%. Expected goals are 1.08–1.52. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Famalicão holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.08–1.52). That shows up as Famalicão win at 45%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 48% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 7 Aug 2026, 12:15 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off: Fri 7 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Estoril Praia vs Famalicão

Who is favourite for Estoril Praia vs Famalicão?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 45%. Home 25%, draw 29%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Estoril Praia vs Famalicão?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.