Skip to main content
E90

Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

Famalicão vs CS Marítimo Prediction

· Estádio Municipal de Famalicão · Famalicão predictions · CS Marítimo predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit
FFamalicão crest

Famalicão

1–2

CS Marítimo won

CMCS Marítimo crest

CS Marítimo

1X2

Famalicão win

48%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Famalicão win · 48%

Actual CS Marítimo won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

FFamalicão crestFamalicãovsCMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Famalicão win 48%

Famalicão win
48%
Draw
29%
CS Marítimo win
22%
Famalicão win %
48%

Predicted

Draw %
29%
CS Marítimo win %
22%

Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Famalicão win 48%, from a +154 Elo gap (1559 vs 1405).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.58-1.01.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

1559 +154 1405

Famalicão vs CS Marítimo

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3

Last 5

FamalicãoD W D D W1.34-0.70 xG

CS MarítimoW L W L D0.46-0.22 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Famalicão win · 48% · Miss

Expected goals

1.58–1.01

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Famalicão versus CS Marítimo
Famalicão goals012345
010%6%4%
110%14%6%2%
29%9%5%
35%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
48%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS %
53%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.1%
  2. 1-09.8%
  3. 0-09.6%
  4. 2-19.4%
  5. 2-09.3%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

FFamalicão crestFamalicão4-2-3-1

  1. 25Lazar CarevićG
  2. 3Léo RealpeD
  3. 4Finn van BreemenD
  4. 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
  5. 28Pedro BondoD
  6. 6Tom Van De LooiM
  7. 7SorrisoM
  8. 11Óscar ArandaM
  9. 14Mathias De AmorimM
  10. 19Paulo MoreiraM
  11. 70Georgios KoutsiasF

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo4-3-3

  1. 13Alfonso PastorG
  2. 2Igor JuliãoD
  3. 4Rafael FernandesD
  4. 23Paulo HenriqueD
  5. 44Romain CorreiaD
  6. 6Rodrigo AndradeM
  7. 14Raphael GuzzoM
  8. 18Vladan DanilovićM
  9. 10Martín TejónF
  10. 11Simo BouzaidiF
  11. 17Adrián ButzkeF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FFamalicão crestFamalicãoD W D D W

  • A · Estoril Praia · 7 Aug 20261-11.47-1.06 xG
  • H · FC Alverca · 16 May 20261-00.52-0.45 xG
  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 11 May 20260-01.97-0.26 xG
  • H · Benfica · 2 May 20262-21.58-1.29 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 26 Apr 20261-01.15-0.44 xG

CMCS Marítimo crestCS MarítimoW L W L D

  • H · Casa Pia · 8 Aug 20261-01.39-0.67 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 27 May 20231-30.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Vizela · 19 May 20231-0
  • A · Sporting CP · 13 May 20231-2
  • H · Rio Ave · 7 May 20232-20.00-0.00 xG

How to read the Famalicão vs CS Marítimo probabilities

Famalicão vs CS Marítimo (Liga Portugal, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Famalicão win 48%. Expected goals are 1.58–1.01. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–2.

Famalicão holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.58–1.01). That shows up as Famalicão win at 48%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 48% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Famalicão vs CS Marítimo

Who is favourite for Famalicão vs CS Marítimo?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 29%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Famalicão vs CS Marítimo?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Famalicão vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Famalicão vs CS Marítimo?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

Related predictions

All Liga Portugal predictions