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Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

Famalicão vs Gil Vicente Prediction

· Estádio Municipal de Famalicão · Famalicão predictions · Gil Vicente predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

FFamalicão crestFamalicãovsGVGil Vicente crestGil Vicente

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Famalicão win 46%

Famalicão win
46%
Draw
30%
Gil Vicente win
24%
Famalicão win %
46%
Draw %
30%
Gil Vicente win %
24%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Famalicão win 46%, from a +44 Elo gap (1538 vs 1494).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.50-1.02.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Umar Abubakar listed out.
Elo

1538 +44 1494

Famalicão vs Gil Vicente

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Umar Abubakar · Famalicão
XI

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

FamalicãoL L D W D1.12-0.95 xG

Gil VicenteW W L L D1.10-1.06 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15%

Verdict

Slight lean

Famalicão win · 46%

Expected goals

1.50–1.02

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Famalicão versus Gil Vicente
Famalicão goals012345
010%6%4%
110%15%6%2%
29%9%5%
34%5%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
46%
BTTS %
52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.5%
  2. 0-010.2%
  3. 1-09.9%
  4. 2-19.2%
  5. 2-09.0%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

FFamalicão crestFamalicão

Out

  • Umar Abubakar · F · Unknown

GVGil Vicente crestGil Vicente

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

FFamalicão crestFamalicão4-2-3-1

  1. 25Lazar CarevićG
  2. 3Léo RealpeD
  3. 4Finn van BreemenD
  4. 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
  5. 28Pedro BondoD
  6. 6Tom Van De LooiM
  7. 7SorrisoM
  8. 10Pedro SantosM
  9. 14Mathias De AmorimM
  10. 23Gil DiasM
  11. 70Georgios KoutsiasF

GVGil Vicente crestGil Vicente4-2-3-1

  1. 30LucãoG
  2. 4Marvin Elimbi GilbertD
  3. 26WeversonD
  4. 39Jonathan BuatuD
  5. 47Ricardo EsgaioD
  6. 5Facundo CáseresM
  7. 11Joelson FernandesM
  8. 12Andreas LausenM
  9. 20Gil MartinsM
  10. 86Diogo PriosteM
  11. 23Héctor HernándezF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FFamalicão crestFamalicãoL L D W D

  • A · Santa Clara · 23 Aug 20260-11.05-1.36 xG
  • H · CS Marítimo · 16 Aug 20261-20.59-1.61 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 7 Aug 20261-11.47-1.06 xG
  • H · FC Alverca · 16 May 20261-00.52-0.45 xG
  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 11 May 20260-01.97-0.26 xG

GVGil Vicente crestGil VicenteW W L L D

  • H · Casa Pia · 24 Aug 20262-01.74-0.76 xG
  • H · Rio Ave · 9 Aug 20261-01.66-0.19 xG
  • A · Sporting CP · 16 May 20260-30.64-1.61 xG
  • H · FC Arouca · 11 May 20261-30.77-1.32 xG
  • A · Rio Ave · 3 May 20260-00.70-1.40 xG

How to read the Famalicão vs Gil Vicente probabilities

Famalicão vs Gil Vicente (Liga Portugal, 30 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Famalicão win 46%. Expected goals are 1.50–1.02. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Famalicão holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.50–1.02). That shows up as Famalicão win at 46%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 46% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
24 Aug 2026, 20:32 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Famalicão win
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Famalicão vs Gil Vicente

Who is favourite for Famalicão vs Gil Vicente?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 30%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Famalicão vs Gil Vicente?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Famalicão vs Gil Vicente go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Famalicão vs Gil Vicente?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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