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Liga Portugal · Round 5 · 2026/27

FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga Prediction

· Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · FC Alverca predictions · Sporting Braga predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

AFC Alverca crestFC AlvercavsSBSporting Braga crestSporting Braga

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Sporting Braga win 44%

FC Alverca win
25%
Draw
31%
Sporting Braga win
44%
FC Alverca win %
25%
Draw %
31%
Sporting Braga win %
44%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Sporting Braga win 44%, from a -206 Elo gap (1443 vs 1649).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.02-1.42.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Bastien Meupiyou listed out and one other absence.
Elo

1443 -206 1649

FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Bastien Meupiyou · FC Alverca
  • Bright Arrey-Mbi · Sporting Braga
XI

Last league XI

3-4-2-1 / 3-4-3

Last 5

FC AlvercaL D L L D1.08-1.48 xG

Sporting BragaD D D D L0.89-1.55 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15%

Verdict

Slight lean

Sporting Braga win · 44%

Expected goals

1.02–1.42

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Alverca versus Sporting Braga
FC Alverca goals012345
011%10%9%4%
17%15%9%4%
25%6%5%2%
32%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
44%
BTTS %
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.9%
  2. 0-011.0%
  3. 0-110.2%
  4. 1-28.9%
  5. 0-28.8%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AFC Alverca crestFC Alverca

Out

  • Bastien Meupiyou · D · Unknown

SBSporting Braga crestSporting Braga

Out

  • Bright Arrey-Mbi · D · Thigh Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

AFC Alverca crestFC Alverca3-4-2-1

  1. 31Matheus MendesG
  2. 4Yaya BojangD
  3. 12Isaac JamesD
  4. 14Steven BaseyaD
  5. 2Nabil TouaiziM
  6. 6Davy GuiM
  7. 35Rayan LucasM
  8. 55Francisco ChissumbaM
  9. 9VivaldoF
  10. 22FigueiredoF
  11. 25Ian LuccasF

SBSporting Braga crestSporting Braga3-4-3

  1. 31Bernardo FontesG
  2. 6Vítor CarvalhoD
  3. 14Gustaf LagerbielkeD
  4. 26Bright Arrey-MbiD
  5. 7Diogo TravassosM
  6. 11Gabriel SilvaM
  7. 29Jean-Baptiste GorbyM
  8. 34Demir Ege TıknazM
  9. 9Fran NavarroF
  10. 20Mario DorgelesF
  11. 21Ricardo HortaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AFC Alverca crestFC AlvercaL D L L D

  • A · Sporting CP · 22 Aug 20261-30.41-2.12 xG
  • H · CF Estrela Amadora · 15 Aug 20262-21.75-1.29 xG
  • A · FC Porto · 9 Aug 20260-21.66-2.59 xG
  • A · Famalicão · 16 May 20260-10.45-0.52 xG
  • H · Estoril Praia · 10 May 20261-11.15-0.87 xG

SBSporting Braga crestSporting BragaD D D D L

  • A · Moreirense · 9 Aug 20262-21.32-0.22 xG
  • H · CF Estrela Amadora · 16 May 20262-22.38-0.71 xG
  • A · Benfica · 11 May 20262-20.20-2.91 xG
  • H · Estoril Praia · 3 May 20261-10.40-1.06 xG
  • A · Santa Clara · 26 Apr 20261-20.17-2.84 xG

How to read the FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga probabilities

FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga (Liga Portugal, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Sporting Braga win 44%. Expected goals are 1.02–1.42. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Sporting Braga holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.02–1.42). That shows up as Sporting Braga win at 44%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Sporting Braga win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga

Who is favourite for FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sporting Braga win at 44%. Home 25%, draw 31%, away 44%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Alverca vs Sporting Braga?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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