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Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo Prediction

· Estádio Municipal de Arouca · FC Arouca predictions · CS Marítimo predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 2/4 checks hit
AFC Arouca crest

FC Arouca

2–1

FC Arouca won

CMCS Marítimo crest

CS Marítimo

1X2

FC Arouca win

43%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted FC Arouca win · 43%

Actual FC Arouca won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AFC Arouca crestFC AroucavsCMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo

Win probabilities

Slight lean

FC Arouca win 43%

FC Arouca win
43%
Draw
30%
CS Marítimo win
27%
FC Arouca win %
43%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
30%
CS Marítimo win %
27%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: FC Arouca win 43%, from a +87 Elo gap (1504 vs 1416).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.48-1.14.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Nathanael Ogbeta listed out.
Elo

1504 +87 1416

FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Nathanael Ogbeta · CS Marítimo
XI

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

FC AroucaL W W W W1.24-1.42 xG

CS MarítimoD W W L W1.07-0.78 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

FC Arouca win · 43% · Hit

Expected goals

1.48–1.14

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Arouca versus CS Marítimo
FC Arouca goals012345
09%6%5%
19%14%7%3%
28%9%5%
34%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
49%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS %
55%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.4%
  2. 0-09.5%
  3. 2-1Result9.1%
  4. 1-08.7%
  5. 2-08.0%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca

No listed absences.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo

Out

  • Nathanael Ogbeta · D · Unknown

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca4-2-3-1

  1. 12Ignacio de ArruabarrenaG
  2. 3Jose FontánD
  3. 15Javi SánchezD
  4. 18Orest LebedenkoD
  5. 28Tiago EsgaioD
  6. 6Espen Van EeM
  7. 7Naïs DjouahraM
  8. 8Taichi FukuiM
  9. 14Hyun-ju LeeM
  10. 19Alfonso TrezzaM
  11. 17Ivan BarberoF

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo4-2-3-1

  1. 13Alfonso PastorG
  2. 2Igor JuliãoD
  3. 4Rafael FernandesD
  4. 23Paulo HenriqueD
  5. 44Romain CorreiaD
  6. 6Rodrigo AndradeM
  7. 10Martín TejónM
  8. 11Simo BouzaidiM
  9. 14Raphael GuzzoM
  10. 18Vladan DanilovićM
  11. 17Adrián ButzkeF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AFC Arouca crestFC AroucaL W W W W

  • A · FC Porto · 23 Aug 20260-20.54-2.92 xG
  • H · Moreirense · 16 Aug 20264-02.14-0.49 xG
  • A · Vitória SC · 8 Aug 20261-00.43-2.28 xG
  • H · Tondela · 16 May 20263-11.77-0.62 xG
  • A · Gil Vicente · 11 May 20263-11.32-0.77 xG

CMCS Marítimo crestCS MarítimoD W W L W

  • H · Académico Viseu FC · 22 Aug 20262-21.28-1.84 xG
  • A · Famalicão · 16 Aug 20262-11.61-0.59 xG
  • H · Casa Pia · 8 Aug 20261-01.39-0.67 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 27 May 20231-30.00-0.00 xG
  • H · Vizela · 19 May 20231-0

How to read the FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo probabilities

FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo (Liga Portugal, 29 Aug 2026): Slight lean — FC Arouca win 43%. Expected goals are 1.48–1.14. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–1.

FC Arouca holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.48–1.14). That shows up as FC Arouca win at 43%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · FC Arouca win
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo

Who is favourite for FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 30%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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