Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia Prediction

Mon 24 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon · Estádio Cidade de Barcelos · Gil Vicente predictions · Casa Pia predictions

Published 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 2/4 checks hit

Gil Vicente

2–0

Gil Vicente won

Casa Pia

1X2

Gil Vicente win

48%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Gil Vicente win · 48%

Actual Gil Vicente won

Modal score

Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Gil VicentevsCP

Casa Pia

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win 48%

Gil Vicente win: 48%
Draw: 30%
Casa Pia win: 22%

Gil Vicente win %: 48%
Draw %: 30%
Casa Pia win %: 22%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Gil Vicente win 48%, from a +59 Elo gap (1489 vs 1430).
2Expected goals 1.51-0.96.
3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
4Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira suspended.

Elo

1489 +59 1430

Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia

Liga Portugal table

Out

Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira · Casa Pia

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3

Last 5

Gil VicenteW L L D W1.13-1.15 xG

Casa PiaL D W L L1.12-1.30 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win · 48% · Hit

Expected goals

1.51–0.96

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Gil Vicente versus Casa Pia
Gil Vicente goals	0	1	2
0	11%	6%	4%
1	11%	14%	6%
2	10%	9%	4%
3	5%	5%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 45%
BTTS %: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal14.4%
1-010.6%
0-010.6%
2-0Result9.6%
2-19.3%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

GVGil Vicente crestGil Vicente

No listed absences.

CPCasa Pia crestCasa Pia

Suspended

Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira · D · yellow or red card suspension

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

GVGil Vicente crestGil Vicente4-2-3-1

30LucãoG
4Marvin Elimbi GilbertD
26WeversonD
39Jonathan BuatuD
47Ricardo EsgaioD
5Facundo CáseresM
10Santi GarcíaM
11Joelson FernandesM
12Andreas LausenM
20Gil MartinsM
23Héctor HernándezF

CPCasa Pia crestCasa Pia4-3-3

31André GomesG
4João GoulartD
5Abdu ContéD
18André GeraldesD
43David SousaD
16Selvi ClúaM
24Sebastián PérezM
80Lawrence OforiM
9Henrique AraújoF
10RochinhaF
20Alassana JattaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

GVGil Vicente crestGil VicenteW L L D W

H · Rio Ave · 9 Aug 20261-01.66-0.19 xG
A · Sporting CP · 16 May 20260-30.64-1.61 xG
H · FC Arouca · 11 May 20261-30.77-1.32 xG
A · Rio Ave · 3 May 20260-00.70-1.40 xG
H · Casa Pia · 27 Apr 20262-11.88-1.21 xG

CPCasa Pia crestCasa PiaL D W L L

A · CS Marítimo · 8 Aug 20260-10.67-1.39 xG
H · Rio Ave · 16 May 20261-12.45-0.75 xG
A · Vitória SC · 11 May 20261-00.88-0.94 xG
H · Tondela · 3 May 20260-10.38-1.53 xG
A · Gil Vicente · 27 Apr 20261-21.21-1.88 xG

How to read the Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia probabilities

Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia (Liga Portugal, 24 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Gil Vicente win 48%. Expected goals are 1.51–0.96. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–0.

Gil Vicente holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.51–0.96). That shows up as Gil Vicente win at 48%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Gil Vicente win
Kick-off: Mon 24 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia

Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 30%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.