Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction

Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon · MKM Stadium · Hull City predictions · Aston Villa predictions

Published 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Hull CityvsAV

Aston Villa

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Aston Villa win 40%

Hull City win: 31%
Draw: 30%
Aston Villa win: 40%

Hull City win %: 31%
Draw %: 30%
Aston Villa win %: 40%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Aston Villa win 40%, from a -189 Elo gap (1412 vs 1601).
2Expected goals 1.27-1.46.
3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
4Charlie Hughes listed out and 7 other absences.

Elo

1412 -189 1601

Hull City vs Aston Villa

Premier League table

Out

Charlie Hughes · Hull City
Darko Gyabi · Hull City
Amadou Onana · Aston Villa
Johan Manzambi · Aston Villa

Last league XI

5-4-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Hull CityW L L L D0.20-0.37 xG

Aston VillaL W W D L1.13-1.86 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Aston Villa win · 40%

Expected goals

1.27–1.46

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Hull City versus Aston Villa
Hull City goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	7%	7%	3%
1	6%	14%	9%	4%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%
3	2%	3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 51%
BTTS %: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal14.1%
1-28.8%
0-08.6%
2-17.7%
0-17.5%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

HCHull City crestHull City

Out

Charlie Hughes · D · Groin Injury
Darko Gyabi · M · Groin Injury
Jack Butland · G · Elbow Injury
Joe Gelhardt · M · Ankle Injury
Matty Jacob · D · Hip Injury
Óscar Zambrano · M · Hamstring Injury

AVAston Villa crestAston Villa

Out

Amadou Onana · M · Cruciate Ligament Injury
Johan Manzambi · M · Knee Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

HCHull City crestHull City5-4-1

19Konstantinos TzolakisG
2Lewie CoyleD
3Ryan GilesD
6Semi AjayiD
15John EganD
32Nobel MendyD
10Mohamed BelloumiM
21Elliot StroudM
25Matt CrooksM
27Regan SlaterM
9Oli McBurnieF

AVAston Villa crestAston Villa4-2-3-1

40Marco BizotG
2Matty CashD
3Victor LindelöfD
14Pau TorresD
22Ian MaatsenD
6Ross BarkleyM
7John McGinnM
8Boubacar KamaraM
35João GomesM
53George HemmingsM
10Emiliano BuendíaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

HCHull City crestHull CityW L L L D

H · Manchester United · 22 Aug 20262-01.01-1.83 xG
H · Tottenham Hotspur · 21 May 20171-70.00-0.00 xG
A · Crystal Palace · 14 May 20170-40.00-0.00 xG
H · Sunderland · 6 May 20170-20.00-0.00 xG
A · Southampton · 29 Apr 20170-00.00-0.00 xG

AVAston Villa crestAston VillaL W W D L

A · Brighton & Hove Albion · 23 Aug 20260-40.29-3.77 xG
A · Manchester City · 24 May 20262-11.77-1.34 xG
H · Liverpool FC · 15 May 20264-21.85-1.43 xG
A · Burnley · 10 May 20262-21.44-1.79 xG
H · Tottenham Hotspur · 3 May 20261-20.32-0.99 xG

How to read the Hull City vs Aston Villa probabilities

Hull City vs Aston Villa (Premier League, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Aston Villa win 40%. Expected goals are 1.27–1.46. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Hull City and Aston Villa are close on expected goals (1.27–1.46), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Aston Villa win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Hull City vs Aston Villa

Who is favourite for Hull City vs Aston Villa?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Aston Villa win at 40%. Home 31%, draw 30%, away 40%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Hull City vs Aston Villa?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.