Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

Sat 29 Aug, 12:30 Lisbon · Anfield · Liverpool FC predictions · Nottingham Forest predictions

Published 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit

Liverpool FC

2–2

Draw

Nottingham Forest

1X2

Liverpool FC win

58%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Liverpool FC win · 58%

Actual Draw

Modal score

Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Liverpool FCvsNF

Nottingham Forest

Win probabilities

Clear lean

Liverpool FC win 58%

Liverpool FC win: 58%
Draw: 25%
Nottingham Forest win: 18%

Liverpool FC win %: 58%
Draw %: 25%
Nottingham Forest win %: 18%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Liverpool FC win 58%, from a +138 Elo gap (1643 vs 1506).
2Expected goals 2.00-1.04.
3Modal score 1-1 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
4Harvey Elliott listed out and 7 other absences.

Elo

1643 +138 1506

Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest

Premier League table

Out

Harvey Elliott · Liverpool FC
Conor Bradley · Liverpool FC
Ibrahim Sangaré · Nottingham Forest
Nicolò Savona · Nottingham Forest

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 3-4-2-1

Last 5

Liverpool FCD D L D L1.78-1.57 xG

Nottingham ForestL D L D W1.48-1.92 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 12% · Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Liverpool FC win · 58% · Miss

Expected goals

2.00–1.04

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Liverpool FC versus Nottingham Forest
Liverpool FC goals	0	1	2
0	6%	3%	3%
1	8%	12%	5%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	6%	7%	3%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 59%
BTTS %: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal11.6%
2-110.0%
2-09.5%
1-07.8%
3-16.6%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

LLiverpool FC crestLiverpool FC

Out

Harvey Elliott · M · coach decision
Conor Bradley · D · Knee Injury
Federico Chiesa · F · Back Injury
Giovanni Leoni · D · Cruciate Ligament Injury
Joe Gomez · D · Strain Injury
Stefan Bajčetić · M · Hamstring Injury

NFNottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

Out

Ibrahim Sangaré · M · Calf Injury
Nicolò Savona · D · Knee Injury

Doubtful

Morgan Gibbs-White · M · Knock Injury
Neco Williams · D · Head Injury
Ryan Yates · M · Lack of Fitness

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

LLiverpool FC crestLiverpool FC4-2-3-1

1AlissonG
4Virgil van DijkD
5Jérémy JacquetD
6Miloš KerkezD
30Jeremie FrimpongD
7Florian WirtzM
8Dominik SzoboszlaiM
10Alexis Mac AllisterM
18Cody GakpoM
38Ryan GravenberchM
9Alexander IsakF

NFNottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest3-4-2-1

26Matz SelsG
2Ousmane DiomandeD
3Neco WilliamsD
5MurilloD
31Nikola MilenkovićD
34Ola AinaD
10Morgan Gibbs-WhiteM
14Dan NdoyeM
21Xaver SchlagerM
24James McAteeM
11Igor JesusF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

LLiverpool FC crestLiverpool FCD D L D L

A · Newcastle United · 23 Aug 20262-22.98-1.58 xG
H · Brentford · 24 May 20261-13.04-1.56 xG
A · Aston Villa · 15 May 20262-41.43-1.85 xG
H · Chelsea · 9 May 20261-10.56-0.50 xG
A · Manchester United · 3 May 20262-30.89-2.34 xG

NFNottingham Forest crestNottingham ForestL D L D W

H · Leeds United · 22 Aug 20260-10.66-0.47 xG
H · Bournemouth · 24 May 20261-11.73-0.95 xG
A · Manchester United · 17 May 20262-31.88-4.57 xG
H · Newcastle United · 10 May 20261-11.10-1.48 xG
A · Chelsea · 4 May 20263-12.05-2.15 xG

How to read the Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest probabilities

Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 29 Aug 2026): Clear lean — Liverpool FC win 58%. Expected goals are 2.00–1.04. Modal score 1-1 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–2.

Liverpool FC is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.00–1.04). Liverpool FC win is 58% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 1-1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Liverpool FC win
Kick-off: Sat 29 Aug, 12:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest

Who is favourite for Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 25%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.