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Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth Prediction

· St James' Park · Newcastle United predictions · Bournemouth predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

NUNewcastle United crestNewcastle UnitedvsBBournemouth crestBournemouth

Win probabilities

Balanced

Newcastle United win 37%

Newcastle United win
37%
Draw
29%
Bournemouth win
34%
Newcastle United win %
37%
Draw %
29%
Bournemouth win %
34%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Newcastle United win 37%, from a -23 Elo gap (1547 vs 1570).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.42-1.37.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Dan Burn listed out and 6 other absences.
Elo

1547 -23 1570

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

Premier League table
Out
  • Dan Burn · Newcastle United
  • Joelinton · Newcastle United
  • Amine Adli · Bournemouth
  • Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth
XI

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Newcastle UnitedD L W D W1.65-1.67 xG

BournemouthL D D W W1.35-1.54 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Balanced

Newcastle United win · 37%

Expected goals

1.42–1.37

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Newcastle United versus Bournemouth
Newcastle United goals012345
08%6%6%3%
17%14%8%4%
26%8%6%3%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
53%
BTTS %
59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.0%
  2. 2-18.5%
  3. 0-08.2%
  4. 1-28.2%
  5. 1-06.7%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

NUNewcastle United crestNewcastle United

Out

  • Dan Burn · D · Ankle Injury
  • Joelinton · M · Muscle Injury
  • William Osula · F · Knock Injury

BBournemouth crestBournemouth

Out

  • Amine Adli · F · Calf Injury
  • Eli Junior Kroupi · F · Foot Injury
  • Julián Araujo · D · Thigh Injury
  • Veljko Milosavljević · D · Knock Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

NUNewcastle United crestNewcastle United4-2-3-1

  1. 21Lukáš HorníčekG
  2. 3Lewis HallD
  3. 4Sven BotmanD
  4. 12Malick ThiawD
  5. 37Amar DedićD
  6. 9Yoane WissaM
  7. 11Harvey BarnesM
  8. 14Sean SteurM
  9. 19Anthony ElangaM
  10. 67Lewis MileyM
  11. 10William OsulaF

BBournemouth crestBournemouth4-2-3-1

  1. 1Đorđe PetrovićG
  2. 3Adrien TruffertD
  3. 5James HillD
  4. 14António SilvaD
  5. 15Adam SmithD
  6. 4Lewis CookM
  7. 8Alex ScottM
  8. 16Marcus TavernierM
  9. 19Justin KluivertM
  10. 37RayanM
  11. 9EvanilsonF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

NUNewcastle United crestNewcastle UnitedD L W D W

  • H · Liverpool FC · 23 Aug 20262-21.58-2.98 xG
  • A · Fulham · 24 May 20260-20.31-1.81 xG
  • H · West Ham United · 17 May 20263-11.73-0.95 xG
  • A · Nottingham Forest · 10 May 20261-11.48-1.10 xG
  • H · Brighton & Hove Albion · 2 May 20263-13.16-1.53 xG

BBournemouth crestBournemouthL D D W W

  • A · Manchester City · 23 Aug 20261-20.65-2.25 xG
  • A · Nottingham Forest · 24 May 20261-10.95-1.73 xG
  • H · Manchester City · 19 May 20261-12.25-1.48 xG
  • A · Fulham · 9 May 20261-00.82-1.33 xG
  • H · Crystal Palace · 3 May 20263-02.08-0.89 xG

How to read the Newcastle United vs Bournemouth probabilities

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth (Premier League, 5 Sept 2026): Balanced — Newcastle United win 37%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.37. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Newcastle United and Bournemouth are close on expected goals (1.42–1.37), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Newcastle United win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 12:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Newcastle United win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 29%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Newcastle United vs Bournemouth go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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