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Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction

· City Ground · Nottingham Forest predictions · Tottenham Hotspur predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

NFNottingham Forest crestNottingham ForestvsTHTottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Nottingham Forest win 44%

Nottingham Forest win
44%
Draw
29%
Tottenham Hotspur win
27%
Nottingham Forest win %
44%
Draw %
29%
Tottenham Hotspur win %
27%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Nottingham Forest win 44%, from a +39 Elo gap (1506 vs 1467).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.58-1.21.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Ibrahim Sangaré listed out and 4 other absences.
Elo

1506 +39 1467

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur

Premier League table
Out
  • Ibrahim Sangaré · Nottingham Forest
  • Nicolò Savona · Nottingham Forest
  • Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur
  • Wilson Odobert · Tottenham Hotspur
XI

Last league XI

3-4-2-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Nottingham ForestL D L D W1.48-1.92 xG

Tottenham HotspurL W L D W1.05-1.31 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Nottingham Forest win · 44%

Expected goals

1.58–1.21

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Nottingham Forest versus Tottenham Hotspur
Nottingham Forest goals012345
08%5%4%
18%14%7%3%
28%9%6%2%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
53%
BTTS %
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.7%
  2. 2-19.3%
  3. 0-08.1%
  4. 1-07.7%
  5. 2-07.7%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

NFNottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

Out

  • Ibrahim Sangaré · M · Calf Injury
  • Nicolò Savona · D · Knee Injury

THTottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur

Out

  • Dejan Kulusevski · M · Knee Injury
  • Wilson Odobert · F · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Xavi Simons · M · Cruciate Ligament Injury

Doubtful

  • James Maddison · M · Shoulder Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

NFNottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest3-4-2-1

  1. 26Matz SelsG
  2. 5MurilloD
  3. 23JairD
  4. 31Nikola MilenkovićD
  5. 3Neco WilliamsM
  6. 6Ibrahim SangaréM
  7. 24James McAteeM
  8. 34Ola AinaM
  9. 10Morgan Gibbs-WhiteF
  10. 11Igor JesusF
  11. 14Dan NdoyeF

THTottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur4-2-3-1

  1. 31Antonín KinskýG
  2. 3Andy RobertsonD
  3. 5Marcos SenesiD
  4. 6Jan Paul van HeckeD
  5. 14Archie GrayD
  6. 8Conor GallagherM
  7. 11Mathys TelM
  8. 15Lucas BergvallM
  9. 16Sandro TonaliM
  10. 47Mikey MooreM
  11. 9RicharlisonF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

NFNottingham Forest crestNottingham ForestL D L D W

  • H · Leeds United · 22 Aug 20260-10.66-0.47 xG
  • H · Bournemouth · 24 May 20261-11.73-0.95 xG
  • A · Manchester United · 17 May 20262-31.88-4.57 xG
  • H · Newcastle United · 10 May 20261-11.10-1.48 xG
  • A · Chelsea · 4 May 20263-12.05-2.15 xG

THTottenham Hotspur crestTottenham HotspurL W L D W

  • A · Brentford · 22 Aug 20260-30.57-3.87 xG
  • H · Everton · 24 May 20261-01.15-0.41 xG
  • A · Chelsea · 19 May 20261-21.27-0.63 xG
  • H · Leeds United · 11 May 20261-11.27-1.34 xG
  • A · Aston Villa · 3 May 20262-10.99-0.32 xG

How to read the Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur probabilities

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur (Premier League, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Nottingham Forest win 44%. Expected goals are 1.58–1.21. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Nottingham Forest holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.58–1.21). That shows up as Nottingham Forest win at 44%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Nottingham Forest win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur

Who is favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Nottingham Forest win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 29%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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