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La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction

· Estadio Municipal de Butarque · Rayo Vallecano predictions · Deportivo Alavés predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit
RVRayo Vallecano crest

Rayo Vallecano

1–1

Draw

DADeportivo Alavés crest

Deportivo Alavés

1X2

Rayo Vallecano win

51%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Rayo Vallecano win · 51%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-0

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo VallecanovsDADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Rayo Vallecano win 51%

Rayo Vallecano win
51%
Draw
26%
Deportivo Alavés win
23%
Rayo Vallecano win %
51%

Predicted

Draw %
26%

Result

Deportivo Alavés win %
23%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Rayo Vallecano win 51%, from a +50 Elo gap (1514 vs 1464).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.54-0.94.
  3. 3Modal score 1-0 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Luiz Felipe listed out.
Elo

1514 +50 1464

Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés

La Liga table
Out
  • Luiz Felipe · Rayo Vallecano
XI

Confirmed

4-1-4-1 / 5-3-2

Last 5

Rayo VallecanoW W D D W1.23-1.17 xG

Deportivo AlavésL W W D L1.19-0.93 xG

Modal score

1-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 13% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Rayo Vallecano win · 51% · Miss

Expected goals

1.54–0.94

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Rayo Vallecano versus Deportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano goals012345
08%8%4%
113%12%6%
210%9%4%
35%5%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
45%

Under · 2 goals · Hit

BTTS %
48%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-0Modal13.0%
  2. 1-1Result12.1%
  3. 2-010.0%
  4. 2-19.3%
  5. 0-08.4%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

Out

  • Luiz Felipe · D · Hamstring Injury

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano4-1-4-1

  1. 13Augusto BatallaG
  2. 2Andrei RațiuD
  3. 22Pelayo FernándezD
  4. 24Florian LejeuneD
  5. 33Jozhua VertrouwdD
  6. 6Pathé Ismaël CissM
  7. 7Isi PalazónM
  8. 8Unai LópezM
  9. 19Jorge de FrutosM
  10. 21Fran PérezM
  11. 10Sergio CamelloF

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo Alavés5-3-2

  1. 1Antonio SiveraG
  2. 7Ángel PérezD
  3. 14Nahuel TenagliaD
  4. 16Ville KoskiD
  5. 17Jonny OttoD
  6. 21Abderrahman RebbachD
  7. 8Antonio BlancoM
  8. 18Mikel RodriguezM
  9. 19Pablo IbáñezM
  10. 11Toni MartínezF
  11. 15Lucas BoyéF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo VallecanoW W D D W

  • A · Deportivo Alavés · 23 May 20262-11.34-1.63 xG
  • H · Villarreal · 17 May 20262-01.49-0.97 xG
  • A · Valencia · 14 May 20261-11.16-0.76 xG
  • H · Girona FC · 11 May 20261-11.20-0.98 xG
  • A · Getafe · 3 May 20262-00.98-1.49 xG

DADeportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésL W W D L

  • H · Rayo Vallecano · 23 May 20261-21.63-1.34 xG
  • A · Real Oviedo · 17 May 20261-01.06-0.33 xG
  • H · FC Barcelona · 13 May 20261-00.72-0.60 xG
  • A · Elche · 9 May 20261-12.05-1.39 xG
  • H · Athletic Club · 2 May 20262-40.49-0.97 xG

How to read the Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés probabilities

Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés (La Liga, 20 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Rayo Vallecano win 51%. Expected goals are 1.54–0.94. Modal score 1-0 (13%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–1.

Rayo Vallecano holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.54–0.94). That shows up as Rayo Vallecano win at 51%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Rayo Vallecano win
Kick-off
Thu 20 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés

Who is favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Rayo Vallecano win at 51%. Home 51%, draw 26%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés?

1-0 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés?

BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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