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La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Real Betis vs Real Sociedad Prediction

· Estadio de la Cartuja · Real Betis predictions · Real Sociedad predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit
RBReal Betis crest

Real Betis

1–0

Real Betis won

RSReal Sociedad crest

Real Sociedad

1X2

Real Betis win

56%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Modal 1-0 · score hit

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Real Betis win · 56%

Actual Real Betis won

Modal score
Hit

Predicted 1-0

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

RBReal Betis crestReal BetisvsRSReal Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

Win probabilities

Clear lean

Real Betis win 56%

Real Betis win
56%
Draw
24%
Real Sociedad win
21%
Real Betis win %
56%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
24%
Real Sociedad win %
21%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Real Betis win 56%, from a +84 Elo gap (1581 vs 1497).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.74-0.97.
  3. 3Modal score 1-0 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Abdessamad Ezzalzouli listed out and 8 other absences.
Elo

1581 +84 1497

Real Betis vs Real Sociedad

La Liga table
Out
  • Abdessamad Ezzalzouli · Real Betis
  • Aitor Ruibal · Real Betis
  • Gonçalo Guedes · Real Sociedad
  • Jon Gorrotxategi · Real Sociedad
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Real BetisW L W D W1.56-1.61 xG

Real SociedadD L D D L1.09-1.99 xG

Modal score

1-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 12% · Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Real Betis win · 56% · Hit

Expected goals

1.74–0.97

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Betis versus Real Sociedad
Real Betis goals012345
07%6%3%
112%11%5%
210%10%5%
36%6%3%
43%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
51%

Under · 1 goals · Miss

BTTS %
51%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-0ModalResult11.6%
  2. 1-111.2%
  3. 2-010.1%
  4. 2-19.8%
  5. 0-06.6%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

RBReal Betis crestReal Betis

Out

  • Abdessamad Ezzalzouli · M · Knee Injury
  • Aitor Ruibal · D · Meniscus Injury
  • Diego Conde · G · Shoulder Injury
  • Giovani Lo Celso · M · Muscle Injury
  • Gonzalo Petit · F · Thigh Injury

RSReal Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

Out

  • Gonçalo Guedes · M · Physical Discomfort
  • Jon Gorrotxategi · M · Muscle Injury
  • Pablo Marín · M · Muscle Injury
  • Álvaro Odriozola · D · ACL Knee Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

RBReal Betis crestReal Betis4-2-3-1

  1. 1Álvaro VallesG
  2. 2Héctor BellerínD
  3. 4NatanD
  4. 5Marc BartraD
  5. 11Fran GarcíaD
  6. 6Facundo BernalM
  7. 7AntonyM
  8. 8Pablo FornalsM
  9. 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
  10. 21Marc RocaM
  11. 9Cucho HernándezF

RSReal Sociedad crestReal Sociedad4-2-3-1

  1. 1Álex RemiroG
  2. 2Jon AramburuD
  3. 5Igor ZubeldiaD
  4. 17Sergio GómezD
  5. 31Jon MartinD
  6. 7Ander BarrenetxeaM
  7. 14Takefusa KuboM
  8. 18Carlos SolerM
  9. 21Yangel HerreraM
  10. 24Luka SučićM
  11. 9Orri ÓskarssonF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RBReal Betis crestReal BetisW L W D W

  • H · Levante UD · 23 May 20262-11.57-2.53 xG
  • A · FC Barcelona · 17 May 20261-30.97-1.12 xG
  • H · Elche · 12 May 20262-11.80-0.40 xG
  • A · Real Sociedad · 9 May 20262-21.94-2.40 xG
  • H · Real Oviedo · 3 May 20263-01.53-1.59 xG

RSReal Sociedad crestReal SociedadD L D D L

  • A · Espanyol · 23 May 20261-11.40-2.41 xG
  • H · Valencia · 17 May 20263-41.15-1.67 xG
  • A · Girona FC · 14 May 20261-10.33-2.11 xG
  • H · Real Betis · 9 May 20262-22.40-1.94 xG
  • A · Sevilla · 4 May 20260-10.16-1.82 xG

How to read the Real Betis vs Real Sociedad probabilities

Real Betis vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, 21 Aug 2026): Clear lean — Real Betis win 56%. Expected goals are 1.74–0.97. Modal score 1-0 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Real Betis is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.74–0.97). Real Betis win is 56% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 1-0 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Real Betis win
Kick-off
Fri 21 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Real Betis vs Real Sociedad

Who is favourite for Real Betis vs Real Sociedad?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Betis win at 56%. Home 56%, draw 24%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Real Betis vs Real Sociedad?

1-0 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Real Betis vs Real Sociedad go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Real Betis vs Real Sociedad?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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