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La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Real Racing Club vs Villarreal Prediction

· El Sardinero · Real Racing Club predictions · Villarreal predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 0/4 checks hit
RRReal Racing Club crest

Real Racing Club

2–2

Draw

VVillarreal crest

Villarreal

1X2

Villarreal win

47%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 0-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Villarreal win · 47%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 0-1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

RRReal Racing Club crestReal Racing ClubvsVVillarreal crestVillarreal

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Villarreal win 47%

Real Racing Club win
25%
Draw
28%
Villarreal win
47%
Real Racing Club win %
25%
Draw %
28%

Result

Villarreal win %
47%

Predicted

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Villarreal win 47%.
  2. 2Expected goals 0.88-1.33.
  3. 3Modal score 0-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

— — 1616

Real Racing Club vs Villarreal

La Liga table
Out

None listed

XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2

Last 5

Real Racing Club—

VillarrealW L L D W1.55-1.20 xG

Modal score

0-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Villarreal win · 47% · Miss

Expected goals

0.88–1.33

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Racing Club versus Villarreal
Real Racing Club goals012345
011%15%10%4%
110%13%9%4%
24%6%4%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
38%

Over · 4 goals · Miss

BTTS %
43%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 0-1Modal14.7%
  2. 1-112.8%
  3. 0-011.0%
  4. 0-29.7%
  5. 1-09.7%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

RRReal Racing Club crestReal Racing Club4-2-3-1

  1. 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
  2. 2Alvaro MantillaD
  3. 5Pablo RamónD
  4. 17Jorge SalinasD
  5. 22Pedro FelipeD
  6. 8Gustavo PuertaM
  7. 10Iñigo VicenteM
  8. 11Andrés MartínM
  9. 20Sergio CanalesM
  10. 36Sergio MartinezM
  11. 12Asier VillalibreF

VVillarreal crestVillarreal4-4-2

  1. 1Luiz JúniorG
  2. 8Juan FoythD
  3. 12Renato VeigaD
  4. 15Santiago MouriñoD
  5. 20Carlos RomeroD
  6. 10Alberto MoleiroM
  7. 14Santi ComesañaM
  8. 18Pape GueyeM
  9. 19Nicolas PépéM
  10. 9Georges MikautadzeF
  11. 22Ayoze PérezF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RRReal Racing Club crestReal Racing Club—

No completed league matches before this cutoff.

VVillarreal crestVillarrealW L L D W

  • H · Atlético Madrid · 24 May 20265-12.48-1.16 xG
  • A · Rayo Vallecano · 17 May 20260-20.97-1.49 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 13 May 20262-30.83-0.87 xG
  • A · Mallorca · 10 May 20261-11.12-1.74 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 2 May 20265-12.36-0.76 xG

How to read the Real Racing Club vs Villarreal probabilities

Real Racing Club vs Villarreal (La Liga, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Villarreal win 47%. Expected goals are 0.88–1.33. Modal score 0-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–2.

Villarreal holds a modest expected-goals edge (0.88–1.33). That shows up as Villarreal win at 47%, not a lock.

The modal score 0-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 38%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 43%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Villarreal win
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Real Racing Club vs Villarreal

Who is favourite for Real Racing Club vs Villarreal?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 47%. Home 25%, draw 28%, away 47%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Real Racing Club vs Villarreal?

0-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Real Racing Club vs Villarreal go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 38% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Real Racing Club vs Villarreal?

BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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