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La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo Prediction

· Reale Arena · Real Sociedad predictions · Celta Vigo predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

RSReal Sociedad crestReal SociedadvsCVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Real Sociedad win 39%

Real Sociedad win
39%
Draw
29%
Celta Vigo win
32%
Real Sociedad win %
39%
Draw %
29%
Celta Vigo win %
32%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Real Sociedad win 39%, from a -40 Elo gap (1490 vs 1530).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.25-1.10.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Pablo Marín listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1490 -40 1530

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

La Liga table
Out
  • Pablo Marín · Real Sociedad
  • Álvaro Odriozola · Real Sociedad
  • Borja Iglesias · Celta Vigo
XI

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 3-4-3

Last 5

Real SociedadL L D L D0.96-2.11 xG

Celta VigoW D W D L0.94-1.60 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Real Sociedad win · 39%

Expected goals

1.25–1.10

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Sociedad versus Celta Vigo
Real Sociedad goals012345
010%10%6%2%
111%14%7%3%
27%8%5%
33%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
42%
BTTS %
48%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.7%
  2. 1-011.3%
  3. 0-010.2%
  4. 0-19.8%
  5. 2-18.2%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

RSReal Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

Out

  • Pablo Marín · M · Muscle Injury
  • Álvaro Odriozola · D · ACL Knee Injury

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

Out

  • Borja Iglesias · F · Muscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

RSReal Sociedad crestReal Sociedad4-2-3-1

  1. 1Álex RemiroG
  2. 2Jon AramburuD
  3. 17Sergio GómezD
  4. 31Jon MartinD
  5. 34Luken BeitiaD
  6. 8Beñat TurrientesM
  7. 12Job OchiengM
  8. 14Takefusa KuboM
  9. 21Yangel HerreraM
  10. 24Luka SučićM
  11. 10Mikel OyarzabalF

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo3-4-3

  1. 13Ionuț RaduG
  2. 3Marcos AlonsoD
  3. 20Javi RodríguezD
  4. 29Yoel LagoD
  5. 6Ilaix MoribaM
  6. 8Miguel RománM
  7. 17Javier RuedaM
  8. 22Javi GalánM
  9. 10Iago AspasF
  10. 11Pablo DuránF
  11. 19Williot SwedbergF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RSReal Sociedad crestReal SociedadL L D L D

  • A · Real Madrid · 26 Aug 20261-40.57-3.14 xG
  • A · Real Betis · 21 Aug 20260-11.36-1.24 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 23 May 20261-11.40-2.41 xG
  • H · Valencia · 17 May 20263-41.15-1.67 xG
  • A · Girona FC · 14 May 20261-10.33-2.11 xG

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta VigoW D W D L

  • H · Osasuna · 27 Aug 20261-00.14-2.60 xG
  • A · Valencia · 22 Aug 20260-00.66-0.58 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 23 May 20261-01.59-0.80 xG
  • A · Athletic Club · 17 May 20261-10.15-2.49 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 12 May 20262-32.18-1.52 xG

How to read the Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo probabilities

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo (La Liga, 3 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Real Sociedad win 39%. Expected goals are 1.25–1.10. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo are close on expected goals (1.25–1.10), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 42%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Real Sociedad win
Kick-off
Thu 3 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Who is favourite for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Sociedad win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 29%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 42% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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