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Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

Santa Clara vs Famalicão Prediction

· Estadio de São Miguel · Santa Clara predictions · Famalicão predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 1/4 checks hit
SCSanta Clara crest

Santa Clara

1–0

Santa Clara won

FFamalicão crest

Famalicão

1X2

Famalicão win

35%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Famalicão win · 35%

Actual Santa Clara won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

SCSanta Clara crestSanta ClaravsFFamalicão crestFamalicão

Win probabilities

Balanced

Famalicão win 35%

Santa Clara win
33%
Draw
32%
Famalicão win
35%
Santa Clara win %
33%

Result

Draw %
32%
Famalicão win %
35%

Predicted

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Famalicão win 35%, from a -89 Elo gap (1470 vs 1559).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.19-1.21.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 15%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

1470 -89 1559

Santa Clara vs Famalicão

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Santa ClaraD L W D W1.58-0.84 xG

FamalicãoD W D D W1.34-0.70 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 15% · Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Famalicão win · 35% · Miss

Expected goals

1.19–1.21

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Santa Clara versus Famalicão
Santa Clara goals012345
011%9%7%3%
18%15%8%3%
26%8%5%
33%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
43%

Under · 1 goals · Hit

BTTS %
51%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal15.3%
  2. 0-011.3%
  3. 0-18.7%
  4. 1-0Result8.5%
  5. 1-27.9%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

SCSanta Clara crestSanta Clara4-2-3-1

  1. 1Lucas FrançaG
  2. 2Diogo CalilaD
  3. 4Pedro PachecoD
  4. 5Guilherme RomãoD
  5. 21Emanuel FernandesD
  6. 6Pedro FerreiraM
  7. 8José TavaresM
  8. 41Daniel BorgesM
  9. 70Vinícius LopesM
  10. 99SorrisoM
  11. 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF

FFamalicão crestFamalicão4-2-3-1

  1. 25Lazar CarevićG
  2. 3Léo RealpeD
  3. 4Finn van BreemenD
  4. 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
  5. 28Pedro BondoD
  6. 6Tom Van De LooiM
  7. 7SorrisoM
  8. 10Pedro SantosM
  9. 14Mathias De AmorimM
  10. 23Gil DiasM
  11. 70Georgios KoutsiasF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SCSanta Clara crestSanta ClaraD L W D W

  • H · CD Nacional · 10 Aug 20262-21.43-1.23 xG
  • A · FC Porto · 16 May 20260-10.50-0.91 xG
  • H · CD Nacional · 11 May 20262-01.53-0.92 xG
  • A · FC Arouca · 2 May 20262-21.61-0.96 xG
  • H · Sporting Braga · 26 Apr 20262-12.84-0.17 xG

FFamalicão crestFamalicãoD W D D W

  • A · Estoril Praia · 7 Aug 20261-11.47-1.06 xG
  • H · FC Alverca · 16 May 20261-00.52-0.45 xG
  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 11 May 20260-01.97-0.26 xG
  • H · Benfica · 2 May 20262-21.58-1.29 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 26 Apr 20261-01.15-0.44 xG

How to read the Santa Clara vs Famalicão probabilities

Santa Clara vs Famalicão (Liga Portugal, 23 Aug 2026): Balanced — Famalicão win 35%. Expected goals are 1.19–1.21. Modal score 1-1 (15%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Santa Clara and Famalicão are close on expected goals (1.19–1.21), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Famalicão win
Kick-off
Sun 23 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Santa Clara vs Famalicão

Who is favourite for Santa Clara vs Famalicão?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Famalicão win at 35%. Home 33%, draw 32%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Santa Clara vs Famalicão?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 15% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Santa Clara vs Famalicão go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Santa Clara vs Famalicão?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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