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La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

· Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán · Sevilla predictions · Rayo Vallecano predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 0/4 checks hit
SSevilla crest

Sevilla

2–1

Sevilla won

RVRayo Vallecano crest

Rayo Vallecano

1X2

Rayo Vallecano win

37%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Rayo Vallecano win · 37%

Actual Sevilla won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

SSevilla crestSevillavsRVRayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

Win probabilities

Balanced

Rayo Vallecano win 37%

Sevilla win
35%
Draw
28%
Rayo Vallecano win
37%
Sevilla win %
35%

Result

Draw %
28%
Rayo Vallecano win %
37%

Predicted

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Rayo Vallecano win 37%, from a -57 Elo gap (1457 vs 1514).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.15-1.19.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

1457 -57 1514

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

La Liga table
Out

None listed · 1 doubtful

XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

SevillaL L W W W1.12-0.84 xG

Rayo VallecanoW W D D W1.23-1.17 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 13% · Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Rayo Vallecano win · 37% · Miss

Expected goals

1.15–1.19

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sevilla versus Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla goals012345
010%11%7%3%
111%13%8%3%
26%8%5%
32%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
41%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS %
47%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.2%
  2. 0-111.5%
  3. 1-011.2%
  4. 0-09.6%
  5. 1-27.8%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

SSevilla crestSevilla

Doubtful

  • Alfon González · F · Muscle Injury

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

SSevilla crestSevilla4-2-3-1

  1. 1Odysseas VlachodimosG
  2. 2Juan IglesiasD
  3. 4Kike SalasD
  4. 12Arouna SanganteD
  5. 17Gabriel SuazoD
  6. 6Lucien AgouméM
  7. 18Jon GuridiM
  8. 19OsoM
  9. 27Nico GuillénM
  10. 30Miguel Ángel Sierra OrtegaM
  11. 16Isaac RomeroF

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano4-2-3-1

  1. 13Augusto BatallaG
  2. 2Andrei RațiuD
  3. 6Pathé Ismaël CissD
  4. 20Iván BalliuD
  5. 24Florian LejeuneD
  6. 7Isi PalazónM
  7. 8Unai LópezM
  8. 18Álvaro GarcíaM
  9. 19Jorge de FrutosM
  10. 23Óscar ValentínM
  11. 11Randy NtekaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SSevilla crestSevillaL L W W W

  • A · Celta Vigo · 23 May 20260-10.80-1.59 xG
  • H · Real Madrid · 17 May 20260-10.72-1.00 xG
  • A · Villarreal · 13 May 20263-20.87-0.83 xG
  • H · Espanyol · 9 May 20262-11.38-0.61 xG
  • H · Real Sociedad · 4 May 20261-01.82-0.16 xG

RVRayo Vallecano crestRayo VallecanoW W D D W

  • A · Deportivo Alavés · 23 May 20262-11.34-1.63 xG
  • H · Villarreal · 17 May 20262-01.49-0.97 xG
  • A · Valencia · 14 May 20261-11.16-0.76 xG
  • H · Girona FC · 11 May 20261-11.20-0.98 xG
  • A · Getafe · 3 May 20262-00.98-1.49 xG

How to read the Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano probabilities

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano (La Liga, 15 Aug 2026): Balanced — Rayo Vallecano win 37%. Expected goals are 1.15–1.19. Modal score 1-1 (13%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–1.

Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano are close on expected goals (1.15–1.19), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 41%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Rayo Vallecano win
Kick-off
Sat 15 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano

Who is favourite for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Rayo Vallecano win at 37%. Home 35%, draw 28%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 41% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?

BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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