Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente Prediction

Sun 16 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon · Sporting Braga predictions · Gil Vicente predictions

Published 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Result pending

Kick-off was Sun 16 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon. The published probabilities are frozen. The final score has not been joined to the ledger yet.

Sporting BragavsGV

Gil Vicente

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Sporting Braga win 51%

Sporting Braga win: 51%
Draw: 29%
Gil Vicente win: 21%

Sporting Braga win %: 51%
Draw %: 29%
Gil Vicente win %: 21%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Sporting Braga win 51%, from a +161 Elo gap (1649 vs 1489).
2Expected goals 1.64-0.99.
3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.

Elo

1649 +161 1489

Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente

Liga Portugal table

Out

None listed

Last league XI

3-4-3 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Sporting BragaD D D D L0.89-1.55 xG

Gil VicenteW L L D W1.13-1.15 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Sporting Braga win · 51%

Expected goals

1.64–0.99

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sporting Braga versus Gil Vicente
Sporting Braga goals	0	1	2
0	9%	5%	4%
1	10%	14%	6%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	5%	5%	3%
4	2%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 49%
BTTS %: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal13.7%
1-09.8%
2-09.7%
2-19.6%
0-09.2%

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

SBSporting Braga crestSporting Braga3-4-3

31Bernardo FontesG
6Vítor CarvalhoD
14Gustaf LagerbielkeD
26Bright Arrey-MbiD
7Diogo TravassosM
11Gabriel SilvaM
29Jean-Baptiste GorbyM
34Demir Ege TıknazM
9Fran NavarroF
20Mario DorgelesF
21Ricardo HortaF

GVGil Vicente crestGil Vicente4-2-3-1

30LucãoG
4Marvin Elimbi GilbertD
26WeversonD
39Jonathan BuatuD
47Ricardo EsgaioD
5Facundo CáseresM
10Santi GarcíaM
11Joelson FernandesM
12Andreas LausenM
20Gil MartinsM
29Carlos EduardoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SBSporting Braga crestSporting BragaD D D D L

A · Moreirense · 9 Aug 20262-21.32-0.22 xG
H · CF Estrela Amadora · 16 May 20262-22.38-0.71 xG
A · Benfica · 11 May 20262-20.20-2.91 xG
H · Estoril Praia · 3 May 20261-10.40-1.06 xG
A · Santa Clara · 26 Apr 20261-20.17-2.84 xG

GVGil Vicente crestGil VicenteW L L D W

H · Rio Ave · 9 Aug 20261-01.66-0.19 xG
A · Sporting CP · 16 May 20260-30.64-1.61 xG
H · FC Arouca · 11 May 20261-30.77-1.32 xG
A · Rio Ave · 3 May 20260-00.70-1.40 xG
H · Casa Pia · 27 Apr 20262-11.88-1.21 xG

How to read the Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente probabilities

Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente (Liga Portugal, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Sporting Braga win 51%. Expected goals are 1.64–0.99. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Sporting Braga holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.64–0.99). That shows up as Sporting Braga win at 51%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Sporting Braga win
Kick-off: Sun 16 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente

Who is favourite for Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sporting Braga win at 51%. Home 51%, draw 29%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.