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Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

Sporting CP vs FC Alverca Prediction

· Estádio José Alvalade · Sporting CP predictions · FC Alverca predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 2/4 checks hit
SCSporting CP crest

Sporting CP

3–1

Sporting CP won

AFC Alverca crest

FC Alverca

1X2

Sporting CP win

84%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Modal 2-0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Sporting CP win · 84%

Actual Sporting CP won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 2-0

Actual 3–1

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CPvsAFC Alverca crestFC Alverca

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win 84% · Open game

Sporting CP win
84%
Draw
12%
FC Alverca win
4%
Sporting CP win %
84%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
12%
FC Alverca win %
4%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Sporting CP win 84%, from a +362 Elo gap (1809 vs 1447).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.98-0.61.
  3. 3Modal score 2-0 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 69%.
  5. 5Fotis Ioannidis listed out and one other absence.
Elo

1809 +362 1447

Sporting CP vs FC Alverca

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Fotis Ioannidis · Sporting CP
  • Chiquinho · FC Alverca
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 3-4-2-1

Last 5

Sporting CPD W W W D2.45-0.92 xG

FC AlvercaL L D L W0.96-1.10 xG

Modal score

2-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 12% · Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win · 84% · Hit

Expected goals

2.98–0.61

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sporting CP versus FC Alverca
Sporting CP goals012345
04%
17%6%
212%7%2%
312%7%2%
49%6%
55%3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
69%

Over · 4 goals · Hit

BTTS %
44%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 2-0Modal12.3%
  2. 3-012.2%
  3. 4-09.1%
  4. 2-17.5%
  5. 3-1Result7.4%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP

Out

  • Fotis Ioannidis · F · Back Injury

AFC Alverca crestFC Alverca

Suspended

  • Chiquinho · F · red card suspension

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP4-2-3-1

  1. 1Rui SilvaG
  2. 6Zeno DebastD
  3. 20Maximiliano AraújoD
  4. 22Iván FresnedaD
  5. 55Ibrahima BaD
  6. 5Sergi AltimiraM
  7. 10Geny CatamoM
  8. 17Rodrigo ZalazarM
  9. 58Flávio GonçalvesM
  10. 77Issa DoumbiaM
  11. 97Luis Javier SuárezF

AFC Alverca crestFC Alverca3-4-2-1

  1. 31Matheus MendesG
  2. 4Yaya BojangD
  3. 12Isaac JamesD
  4. 14Steven BaseyaD
  5. 2Nabil TouaiziM
  6. 6Davy GuiM
  7. 35Rayan LucasM
  8. 55Francisco ChissumbaM
  9. 9VivaldoF
  10. 22FigueiredoF
  11. 25Ian LuccasF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CPD W W W D

  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 8 Aug 20262-22.63-1.10 xG
  • H · Gil Vicente · 16 May 20263-01.61-0.64 xG
  • A · Rio Ave · 11 May 20264-11.56-0.97 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 4 May 20265-14.57-0.61 xG
  • H · Tondela · 29 Apr 20262-21.90-1.27 xG

AFC Alverca crestFC AlvercaL L D L W

  • A · FC Porto · 9 Aug 20260-21.66-2.59 xG
  • A · Famalicão · 16 May 20260-10.45-0.52 xG
  • H · Estoril Praia · 10 May 20261-11.15-0.87 xG
  • A · FC Porto · 2 May 20260-10.68-0.65 xG
  • H · FC Arouca · 24 Apr 20262-10.85-0.86 xG

How to read the Sporting CP vs FC Alverca probabilities

Sporting CP vs FC Alverca (Liga Portugal, 22 Aug 2026): Strong favourite — Sporting CP win 84%. Expected goals are 2.98–0.61. Modal score 2-0 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 3–1.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.98–0.61). Sporting CP win is 84% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-0 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 69%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Sporting CP win
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sporting CP vs FC Alverca

Who is favourite for Sporting CP vs FC Alverca?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 84%. Home 84%, draw 12%, away 4%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sporting CP vs FC Alverca?

2-0 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Sporting CP vs FC Alverca go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 69% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sporting CP vs FC Alverca?

BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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