Skip to main content
E90

Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

Sporting CP vs Vitória SC Prediction

· Estádio José Alvalade · Sporting CP predictions · Vitória SC predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit
SCSporting CP crest

Sporting CP

3–2

Sporting CP won

VVitória SC crest

Vitória SC

1X2

Sporting CP win

72%Hit

Verdict

Strong favourite

Modal 2-0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Sporting CP win · 72%

Actual Sporting CP won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 2-0

Actual 3–2

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CPvsVVitória SC crestVitória SC

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win 72% · Open game

Sporting CP win
72%
Draw
19%
Vitória SC win
9%
Sporting CP win %
72%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
19%
Vitória SC win %
9%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Sporting CP win 72%, from a +299 Elo gap (1809 vs 1509).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.37-0.75.
  3. 3Modal score 2-0 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 60%.
  5. 5José Ribeiro listed out.
Elo

1809 +299 1509

Sporting CP vs Vitória SC

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • José Ribeiro · Vitória SC
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Sporting CPD W W W D2.45-0.92 xG

Vitória SCL L L L W1.27-1.45 xG

Modal score

2-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 12% · Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win · 72% · Hit

Expected goals

2.37–0.75

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sporting CP versus Vitória SC
Sporting CP goals012345
06%
19%9%3%
212%9%3%
310%7%3%
46%4%
53%2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
60%

Over · 5 goals · Hit

BTTS %
49%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 2-0Modal12.4%
  2. 3-09.8%
  3. 2-19.3%
  4. 1-19.2%
  5. 1-09.1%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP

No listed absences.

VVitória SC crestVitória SC

Out

  • José Ribeiro · G · Cruciate Ligament Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP4-2-3-1

  1. 1Rui SilvaG
  2. 13Georgios VagiannidisD
  3. 20Maximiliano AraújoD
  4. 25Gonçalo InácioD
  5. 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
  6. 5Sergi AltimiraM
  7. 10Geny CatamoM
  8. 17Rodrigo ZalazarM
  9. 58Flávio GonçalvesM
  10. 77Issa DoumbiaM
  11. 7Fotis IoannidisF

VVitória SC crestVitória SC4-2-3-1

  1. 48Oliwier ZychG
  2. 2Miguel MagaD
  3. 4Óscar RivasD
  4. 13João MendesD
  5. 28Thiago BalieiroD
  6. 7Oumar CamaraM
  7. 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
  8. 11Gustavo SilvaM
  9. 16Beni MukendiM
  10. 20SamuM
  11. 24Alioune NdoyeF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SCSporting CP crestSporting CPD W W W D

  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 8 Aug 20262-22.63-1.10 xG
  • H · Gil Vicente · 16 May 20263-01.61-0.64 xG
  • A · Rio Ave · 11 May 20264-11.56-0.97 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 4 May 20265-14.57-0.61 xG
  • H · Tondela · 29 Apr 20262-21.90-1.27 xG

VVitória SC crestVitória SCL L L L W

  • H · FC Arouca · 8 Aug 20260-12.28-0.43 xG
  • A · CD Nacional · 16 May 20260-21.33-0.94 xG
  • H · Casa Pia · 11 May 20260-10.94-0.88 xG
  • A · Sporting CP · 4 May 20261-50.61-4.57 xG
  • H · Rio Ave · 25 Apr 20262-01.17-0.44 xG

How to read the Sporting CP vs Vitória SC probabilities

Sporting CP vs Vitória SC (Liga Portugal, 14 Aug 2026): Strong favourite — Sporting CP win 72%. Expected goals are 2.37–0.75. Modal score 2-0 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 3–2.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.37–0.75). Sporting CP win is 72% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-0 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 60%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:02 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Sporting CP win
Kick-off
Fri 14 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sporting CP vs Vitória SC

Who is favourite for Sporting CP vs Vitória SC?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 72%. Home 72%, draw 19%, away 9%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sporting CP vs Vitória SC?

2-0 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Sporting CP vs Vitória SC go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sporting CP vs Vitória SC?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

Related predictions

All Liga Portugal predictions