Skip to main content
E90

La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Valencia vs Celta Vigo Prediction

· Mestalla · Valencia predictions · Celta Vigo predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit
VValencia crest

Valencia

0–0

Draw

CVCelta Vigo crest

Celta Vigo

1X2

Valencia win

48%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-0 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Valencia win · 48%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-0

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

VValencia crestValenciavsCVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Valencia win 48%

Valencia win
48%
Draw
27%
Celta Vigo win
25%
Valencia win %
48%

Predicted

Draw %
27%

Result

Celta Vigo win %
25%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Valencia win 48%, from a -15 Elo gap (1509 vs 1523).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.44-0.95.
  3. 3Modal score 1-0 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Alberto Mari listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1509 -15 1523

Valencia vs Celta Vigo

La Liga table
Out
  • Alberto Mari · Valencia
  • José Copete · Valencia
XI

Confirmed

5-4-1 / 3-4-3

Last 5

ValenciaW W D W L1.21-1.29 xG

Celta VigoW D L W W1.02-1.74 xG

Modal score

1-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 13% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Valencia win · 48% · Miss

Expected goals

1.44–0.95

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Valencia versus Celta Vigo
Valencia goals012345
09%9%4%
113%12%6%
29%9%4%
35%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
43%

Under · 0 goals · Hit

BTTS %
47%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-0Modal13.2%
  2. 1-112.5%
  3. 2-09.5%
  4. 0-0Result9.0%
  5. 2-19.0%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

VValencia crestValencia

Out

  • Alberto Mari · F · Muscle Injury
  • José Copete · D · Meniscus Injury
  • Luis Rioja · M · Muscle Injury

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

VValencia crestValencia5-4-1

  1. 1Stole DimitrievskiG
  2. 5César TárregaD
  3. 12Justin De HaasD
  4. 14José Luis GayàD
  5. 18PepeluD
  6. 21Jesús VázquezD
  7. 2Guido RodríguezM
  8. 8Javier GuerraM
  9. 23Filip UgrinićM
  10. 39Ryunosuke SatoM
  11. 7Arnaut DanjumaF

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta Vigo3-4-3

  1. 13Ionuț RaduG
  2. 3Marcos AlonsoD
  3. 20Javi RodríguezD
  4. 29Yoel LagoD
  5. 5Sergio CarreiraM
  6. 8Miguel RománM
  7. 14Aleix FebasM
  8. 22Javi GalánM
  9. 9Ferran JutglàF
  10. 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
  11. 39Jones El-AbdellaouiF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

VValencia crestValenciaW W D W L

  • H · FC Barcelona · 23 May 20263-11.35-1.18 xG
  • A · Real Sociedad · 17 May 20264-31.67-1.15 xG
  • H · Rayo Vallecano · 14 May 20261-10.76-1.16 xG
  • A · Athletic Club · 10 May 20261-01.19-0.93 xG
  • H · Atlético Madrid · 2 May 20260-21.09-2.04 xG

CVCelta Vigo crestCelta VigoW D L W W

  • H · Sevilla · 23 May 20261-01.59-0.80 xG
  • A · Athletic Club · 17 May 20261-10.15-2.49 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 12 May 20262-32.18-1.52 xG
  • A · Atlético Madrid · 9 May 20261-00.13-2.18 xG
  • H · Elche · 3 May 20263-11.05-1.71 xG

How to read the Valencia vs Celta Vigo probabilities

Valencia vs Celta Vigo (La Liga, 22 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Valencia win 48%. Expected goals are 1.44–0.95. Modal score 1-0 (13%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–0.

Valencia holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.44–0.95). That shows up as Valencia win at 48%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Valencia win
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug, 18:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Valencia vs Celta Vigo

Who is favourite for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Valencia win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 27%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

1-0 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Valencia vs Celta Vigo go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

Related predictions

All La Liga predictions