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Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

Vitória SC vs FC Arouca Prediction

· Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Vitória SC predictions · FC Arouca predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 1/4 checks hit
VVitória SC crest

Vitória SC

0–1

FC Arouca won

AFC Arouca crest

FC Arouca

1X2

Vitória SC win

40%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Vitória SC win · 40%

Actual FC Arouca won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

VVitória SC crestVitória SCvsAFC Arouca crestFC Arouca

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Vitória SC win 40%

Vitória SC win
40%
Draw
30%
FC Arouca win
30%
Vitória SC win %
40%

Predicted

Draw %
30%
FC Arouca win %
30%

Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Vitória SC win 40%, from a +30 Elo gap (1519 vs 1490).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.42-1.19.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
Elo

1519 +30 1490

Vitória SC vs FC Arouca

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Vitória SCL L L W W0.97-1.64 xG

FC AroucaW W D L W1.34-1.04 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Vitória SC win · 40% · Miss

Expected goals

1.42–1.19

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Vitória SC versus FC Arouca
Vitória SC goals012345
09%7%5%2%
19%14%7%3%
27%9%5%2%
34%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
48%

Under · 1 goals · Hit

BTTS %
55%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal14.3%
  2. 0-09.2%
  3. 2-18.8%
  4. 1-08.5%
  5. 1-27.4%

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

VVitória SC crestVitória SC4-2-3-1

  1. 48Oliwier ZychG
  2. 2Miguel MagaD
  3. 4Óscar RivasD
  4. 13João MendesD
  5. 28Thiago BalieiroD
  6. 7Oumar CamaraM
  7. 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
  8. 11Gustavo SilvaM
  9. 16Beni MukendiM
  10. 20SamuM
  11. 24Alioune NdoyeF

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca4-2-3-1

  1. 12Ignacio de ArruabarrenaG
  2. 3Jose FontánD
  3. 15Javi SánchezD
  4. 21Mateo FloresD
  5. 28Tiago EsgaioD
  6. 6Espen Van EeM
  7. 7Naïs DjouahraM
  8. 8Taichi FukuiM
  9. 14Hyun-ju LeeM
  10. 19Alfonso TrezzaM
  11. 17Ivan BarberoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

VVitória SC crestVitória SCL L L W W

  • A · CD Nacional · 16 May 20260-21.33-0.94 xG
  • H · Casa Pia · 11 May 20260-10.94-0.88 xG
  • A · Sporting CP · 4 May 20261-50.61-4.57 xG
  • H · Rio Ave · 25 Apr 20262-01.17-0.44 xG
  • A · Gil Vicente · 18 Apr 20261-00.82-1.38 xG

AFC Arouca crestFC AroucaW W D L W

  • H · Tondela · 16 May 20263-11.77-0.62 xG
  • A · Gil Vicente · 11 May 20263-11.32-0.77 xG
  • H · Santa Clara · 2 May 20262-20.96-1.61 xG
  • A · FC Alverca · 24 Apr 20261-20.86-0.85 xG
  • H · CF Estrela Amadora · 19 Apr 20261-01.77-1.35 xG

How to read the Vitória SC vs FC Arouca probabilities

Vitória SC vs FC Arouca (Liga Portugal, 8 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Vitória SC win 40%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.19. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–1.

Vitória SC and FC Arouca are close on expected goals (1.42–1.19), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 48% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
8 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Vitória SC win
Kick-off
Sat 8 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Vitória SC vs FC Arouca

Who is favourite for Vitória SC vs FC Arouca?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Vitória SC win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 30%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Vitória SC vs FC Arouca?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Vitória SC vs FC Arouca go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Vitória SC vs FC Arouca?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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