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Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

Benfica vs Estoril Praia Prediction

· Estádio da Luz · Benfica predictions · Estoril Praia predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

BBenfica crestBenficavsEPEstoril Praia crestEstoril Praia

Win probabilities

Benfica win
86%
Draw
11%
Estoril Praia win
3%
Benfica win %
86%
Draw %
11%
Estoril Praia win %
3%

Benfica's 86% home win tracks a +348 Elo gap (1797 vs 1449) and 3.18-0.58 expected goals.

Elo

1797 +348 1449

Benfica vs Estoril Praia

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

BenficaW D W D D2.97-0.90 xG

Estoril PraiaL L D L D1.09-1.91 xG

Predicted score

3-0

Most likely scoreline · 12%

Game pick

Benfica win

Strong · 86%

Expected goals

3.18–0.58

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
73%
BTTS %
43%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

  1. 3-012.4%
  2. 2-011.7%
  3. 4-09.9%
  4. 3-17.3%
  5. 2-16.9%

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

BBenfica crestBenfica4-2-3-1

  1. 24Samuel SoaresG
  2. 2Clément LengletD
  3. 6Alexander BahD
  4. 26Samuel DahlD
  5. 44Tomás AraújoD
  6. 5Enzo BarrenecheaM
  7. 10Georgiy SudakovM
  8. 18Leandro BarreiroM
  9. 25Gianluca PrestianniM
  10. 27Rafa SilvaM
  11. 14Vangelis PavlidisF

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril Praia4-2-3-1

  1. 1Joel RoblesG
  2. 2Ricard SánchezD
  3. 3Fernando MedranoD
  4. 4FerroD
  5. 5Antef TsounguiD
  6. 15Ismael Sierra ArnalD
  7. 90Tiago BritoM
  8. 7André LacximicantF
  9. 12João CarvalhoF
  10. 14Yanis BegraouiF
  11. 99Rafik GuitaneF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

BBenfica crestBenficaW D W D D

  • A · Casa Pia · 17 Aug 20267-03.04-0.12 xG
  • H · Académico Viseu FC · 9 Aug 20262-23.44-1.07 xG
  • A · Estoril Praia · 16 May 20263-14.15-1.52 xG
  • H · Sporting Braga · 11 May 20262-22.91-0.20 xG
  • A · Famalicão · 2 May 20262-21.29-1.58 xG

EPEstoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaL L D L D

  • H · Rio Ave · 22 Aug 20260-21.16-0.70 xG
  • A · CD Nacional · 16 Aug 20260-20.82-2.08 xG
  • H · Famalicão · 7 Aug 20261-11.06-1.47 xG
  • H · Benfica · 16 May 20261-31.52-4.15 xG
  • A · FC Alverca · 10 May 20261-10.87-1.15 xG

How to read the Benfica vs Estoril Praia probabilities

Benfica vs Estoril Praia (Liga Portugal, 31 Aug 2026): the model gives Benfica win 86%. Expected goals are 3.18–0.58. Most likely score 3-0 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Benfica is clearly ahead on expected goals (3.18–0.58). Benfica win is 86% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 3-0 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 73%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 43%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Game pick
Benfica win · Strong
Kick-off
Mon 31 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Benfica vs Estoril Praia

Who is favourite for Benfica vs Estoril Praia?

The highest 1X2 probability is Benfica win at 86%. Home 86%, draw 11%, away 3%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Benfica vs Estoril Praia?

3-0 is the modal scoreline at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid, which is normal in football.

Will Benfica vs Estoril Praia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 73% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Benfica vs Estoril Praia?

BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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