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Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora Prediction

· Estádio da Madeira · CD Nacional predictions · CF Estrela Amadora predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

NCD Nacional crestCD NacionalvsEACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora

Win probabilities

CD Nacional win
49%
Draw
30%
CF Estrela Amadora win
21%
CD Nacional win %
49%
Draw %
30%
CF Estrela Amadora win %
21%

CD Nacional's 49% home win tracks a -7 Elo gap (1401 vs 1407) and 1.55-0.95 expected goals, with José Gomes listed out and one other absence.

Elo

1401 -7 1407

CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • José Gomes · CD Nacional
  • Motez Nourani · CD Nacional
XI

Predicted XI

3-4-3 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

CD NacionalL W D W L1.12-1.65 xG

CF Estrela AmadoraD D D D L1.24-2.12 xG

Predicted score

2-1

Most likely scoreline · 9%

Game pick

CD Nacional win

Slight · 49%

Expected goals

1.55–0.95

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
46%
BTTS %
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

  1. 1-114.2%
  2. 1-010.5%
  3. 0-010.3%
  4. 2-09.8%
  5. 2-19.4%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

NCD Nacional crestCD Nacional

Out

  • José Gomes · D · Unknown
  • Motez Nourani · F · Unknown

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

NCD Nacional crestCD Nacional3-4-3

  1. 1Renato MarinG
  2. 34Léo SantosD
  3. 38Ze VitorD
  4. 52Wesley GasolinaD
  5. 6Matheus DiasM
  6. 7Markus JensenM
  7. 8Miguel BaezaM
  8. 10Daniel JúniorM
  9. 22Filipe SoaresM
  10. 28LizieroM
  11. 99Pablo Messias CardozoF

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora4-2-3-1

  1. 24Léo LinckG
  2. 5Stefan LekovićD
  3. 17Jefferson EncadaD
  4. 30Luan PatrickD
  5. 55Rafa SoaresD
  6. 14Lovro ZvonarekM
  7. 39Eddy DouéM
  8. 78Santiago SerraM
  9. 99Abraham MarcusM
  10. 10Ianis StoicaF
  11. 37Leandro AntonettiF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

NCD Nacional crestCD NacionalL W D W L

  • A · Vitória SC · 23 Aug 20260-10.42-3.14 xG
  • H · Estoril Praia · 16 Aug 20262-02.08-0.82 xG
  • A · Santa Clara · 10 Aug 20262-21.23-1.43 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 16 May 20262-00.94-1.33 xG
  • A · Santa Clara · 11 May 20260-20.92-1.53 xG

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela AmadoraD D D D L

  • A · FC Alverca · 15 Aug 20262-21.29-1.75 xG
  • H · Sporting CP · 8 Aug 20262-21.10-2.63 xG
  • A · Sporting Braga · 16 May 20262-20.71-2.38 xG
  • H · Famalicão · 11 May 20260-00.26-1.97 xG
  • A · Moreirense · 2 May 20262-32.83-1.87 xG

How to read the CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora probabilities

CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora (Liga Portugal, 30 Aug 2026): the model gives CD Nacional win 49%. Expected goals are 1.55–0.95. Most likely score 2-1 (9%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

CD Nacional holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.55–0.95). That shows up as CD Nacional win at 49%, not a lock.

The modal score 2-1 carries 9%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 46% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
24 Aug 2026, 20:32 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Game pick
CD Nacional win · Slight
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora

Who is favourite for CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora?

The highest 1X2 probability is CD Nacional win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 30%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora?

2-1 is the modal scoreline at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid, which is normal in football.

Will CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CD Nacional vs CF Estrela Amadora?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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