Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Manchester United vs Ipswich Town Prediction

Sun 30 Aug, 16:30 Lisbon · Old Trafford · Manchester United predictions · Ipswich Town predictions

Published 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Manchester UnitedvsIT

Ipswich Town

Win probabilities

Manchester United win: 68%
Draw: 21%
Ipswich Town win: 11%

Manchester United win %: 68%
Draw %: 21%
Ipswich Town win %: 11%

Manchester United's 68% home win tracks a +220 Elo gap (1600 vs 1380) and 2.30-0.86 expected goals, with Amad Diallo listed out and 6 other absences.

Elo

1600 +220 1380

Manchester United vs Ipswich Town

Premier League table

Out

Amad Diallo · Manchester United
Carlos Baleba · Manchester United
Azor Matusiwa · Ipswich Town
Jack Taylor · Ipswich Town

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Manchester UnitedL W W D W2.20-1.16 xG

Ipswich TownW L L L D1.15-0.90 xG

Predicted score

2-1

Most likely scoreline · 10%

Game pick

Manchester United win

Lean · 68%

Expected goals

2.30–0.86

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 61%
BTTS %: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

2-011.3%
1-19.8%
2-19.6%
3-08.6%
1-08.4%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

MUManchester United crestManchester United

Out

Amad Diallo · M · Knock Injury
Carlos Baleba · M · Ankle Injury
Manuel Ugarte · M · Cruciate Ligament Injury
Tom Heaton · G · Knock Injury

ITIpswich Town crestIpswich Town

Out

Azor Matusiwa · M · Muscle Injury
Jack Taylor · M · Knee Injury
Jaden Philogene-Bidace · M · Ankle Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

MUManchester United crestManchester United4-2-3-1

1Senne LammensG
2Diogo DalotD
5Harry MaguireD
6Lisandro MartínezD
23Luke ShawD
8Bruno FernandesM
17Andrey SantosM
18Youri TielemansM
10Matheus CunhaF
14Marcus RashfordF
19Bryan MbeumoF

ITIpswich Town crestIpswich Town4-2-3-1

22Kjell ScherpenG
2Issa DiopD
3Leif DavisD
24Jacob GreavesD
26Dara O'SheaD
6Saša LukićM
10Julio EncisoM
15Abdul Fatawu IssahakuM
32Marcelino NúñezM
12Daizen MaedaF
13EmersonnF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

MUManchester United crestManchester UnitedL W W D W

A · Hull City · 22 Aug 20260-21.83-1.01 xG
A · Brighton & Hove Albion · 24 May 20263-01.66-0.79 xG
H · Nottingham Forest · 17 May 20263-24.57-1.88 xG
A · Sunderland · 9 May 20260-00.62-1.25 xG
H · Liverpool FC · 3 May 20263-22.34-0.89 xG

ITIpswich Town crestIpswich TownW L L L D

H · Sunderland · 22 Aug 20262-11.80-0.66 xG
H · West Ham United · 25 May 20251-30.74-1.08 xG
A · Leicester City · 18 May 20250-21.41-0.80 xG
H · Brentford · 10 May 20250-10.93-1.41 xG
A · Everton · 3 May 20252-20.85-0.55 xG

How to read the Manchester United vs Ipswich Town probabilities

Manchester United vs Ipswich Town (Premier League, 30 Aug 2026): the model gives Manchester United win 68%. Expected goals are 2.30–0.86. Most likely score 2-1 (10%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Manchester United is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.30–0.86). Manchester United win is 68% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 61%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Game pick: Manchester United win · Lean
Kick-off: Sun 30 Aug, 16:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Manchester United vs Ipswich Town

Who is favourite for Manchester United vs Ipswich Town?

The highest 1X2 probability is Manchester United win at 68%. Home 68%, draw 21%, away 11%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.