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England · pl-v1.1.0-elo · Round 2

Premier League round 2 results

Premier League round 2 has 5 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 20%; exact score hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United; Bournemouth vs Everton; Coventry City vs Hull City; Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 12:39 UTC

Premier League reliability

Round 2 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796
RPS
0.1997
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
54%
Goal MAE
0.94
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%44%165+6%
40–50%45%45%4000%
50–60%55%60%303+5%
60–70%65%60%147−5%
70–80%74%71%90−3%
80–90%85%91%32+6%
90–100%92%100%3+8%
Jump to roundAll2

Premier League round 2 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
5
Favourite-correct
20%
Exact score hits
1

Premier League predictions

Premier League round 2 questions

How did Expected90 do in Premier League round 2?

5 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 20% and 1 exact scores hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.

Where are the Premier League round 2 match pages?

Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.

Can I see other Premier League rounds?

Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 2.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Live season 2026/27 · round 2

Matches scored
5
Log loss
1.1137
RPS
0.2101
Goal MAE
0.72
1X2 accuracy
20%

Live sample only. Several strong favourites can draw in a single round. These numbers will move; they are not a claim about long-run quality.