England · pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League model performance

Premier League live sample (2026/27): 5 scored matches, favourite-correct 20%, exact score hits 0. Frozen walk-forward baseline: 1140 matches, log loss 0.9796, 1X2 accuracy 54%. Live sample only. Several strong favourites can draw in a single round. These numbers will move; they are not a claim about long-run quality.

Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC

Round ledgers: Round 2

Premier League historical prediction results

Premier League prediction results from Expected90. Live 2026/27: 5 scored matches. Walk-forward log loss 0.9796, 1X2 accuracy 54%. Filter by round. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. We still prefer log loss.

Matches in view: 5
Favourite-correct: 20%
Game pick hit rate: 20%
Exact score hits: 0

Match	Round	Result	Predicted Match Score	Game pick	Over/Under 2.5	BTTS
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United	2	0–2	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	OverMiss	YesMiss
Bournemouth vs Everton	2	1–1	2-1Miss	Bournemouth winMiss	OverMiss	YesHit
Coventry City vs Hull City	2	0–1	1-1Miss	DrawMiss	UnderHit	NoHit
Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest	2	2–2	2-1Miss	Liverpool FC winMiss	OverHit	YesHit
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City	2	1–4	1-2Miss	Manchester City winHit	OverHit	YesHit

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 17:30 Lisbon

Tottenham HotspurvsNU

Newcastle United

Final 0–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

Hotspur: 37%
Draw: 30%
United: 33%

xG home: 1.42
xG away: 1.32
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 58%

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Match page

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Lisbon

BournemouthvsE

Everton

Final 1–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Bournemouth win

Miss

Bournemouth: 44%
Draw: 29%
Everton: 27%

xG home: 1.59
xG away: 1.20
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 58%

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Match page

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Lisbon

Coventry CityvsHC

Hull City

Final 0–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw

Miss

City: 39%
Draw: 32%
City: 29%

xG home: 1.27
xG away: 1.05
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 49%

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Match page

Premier League · Round 2Sat 29 Aug, 12:30 Lisbon

Liverpool FCvsNF

Nottingham Forest

Final 2–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Liverpool FC win

Miss

FC: 58%
Draw: 25%
Forest: 18%

xG home: 2.00
xG away: 1.04
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%

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Match page

Premier League · Round 2Fri 28 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon

Crystal PalacevsMC

Manchester City

Final 1–4·Predicted 1-2·Pick Manchester City win

Hit

Palace: 18%
Draw: 25%
City: 57%

xG home: 1.04
xG away: 1.98
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%

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Match page

Premier League predictions

Premier League performance questions

How accurate are Premier League predictions?

On 1140 walk-forward Premier League matches the frozen model recorded log loss 0.9796, RPS 0.1997 and favourite 1X2 accuracy 54%. Live rounds can look noisier.

Can I check Premier League results by round?

Yes. Open a round page for the predicted vs actual table. Scored rounds: 2.

Are Premier League results betting tips?

No. This ledger scores published probabilities after kick-off. Misses stay visible.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Validation

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

Matches: 1140
Log loss: 0.9796
RPS: 0.1997
ECE: 0.0326
1X2 accuracy: 54%
Goal MAE: 0.94

Frozen official baseline pl-v1.1.0-elo. 0.5421 is 1X2 accuracy of the favourite, not Brier. Log loss and RPS are the metrics we optimize.

Live season 2026/27 · round 2

Matches scored: 5
Log loss: 1.1137
RPS: 0.2101
1X2 accuracy: 20%
Goal MAE: 0.72

Live sample only. Several strong favourites can draw in a single round. These numbers will move; they are not a claim about long-run quality.