Skip to main content
E90

Spain · la-v1.1.0-elo · Round 1

La Liga round 1 results

La Liga round 1 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 50%; exact score hits 2. Favourites that did not land: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna; Valencia vs Real Betis; Deportivo de A Coruña vs Elche; Real Racing Club vs Villarreal; Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 12:39 UTC

La Liga reliability

Round 1 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 39% (241 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 47% (392 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 54% (268 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 66% (127 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 84% (69 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 92% (39 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (4 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
La Liga: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0260 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0260. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 84% of 69 matches.

ECE
0.0260
Log loss
0.9732
RPS
0.1944
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%39%241+2%
40–50%45%47%392+3%
50–60%55%54%268−1%
60–70%64%66%127+2%
70–80%75%84%69+9%
80–90%84%92%39+8%
90–100%92%100%4+8%
Jump to roundAll123

La Liga round 1 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
10
Favourite-correct
50%
Exact score hits
2

All La Liga resultsNext: round 2

La Liga predictions

La Liga round 1 questions

How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 1?

10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 50% and 2 exact scores hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.

Where are the La Liga round 1 match pages?

Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.

Can I see other La Liga rounds?

Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3.

la-v1.1.0-elo

La Liga

Live season 2026/27 · round 3

Matches scored
25
Log loss
0.9765
RPS
0.1896
Goal MAE
0.88
1X2 accuracy
52%

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.