Sevilla crestSevillavsAM
Atlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridFinal 1–3·Atlético Madrid win 39%
Hit- Sevilla
- 32%
- Draw
- 29%
- Madrid
- 39%
- xG home
- 1.13
- xG away
- 1.26
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- BTTS
- 49%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageSpain · la-v1.1.0-elo · Round 3
La Liga round 3 results
La Liga round 3 has 5 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 80%; exact score hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Levante UD vs Real Betis. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 12:39 UTC
La Liga reliability
Round 3 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
ECE 0.0260. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 84% of 69 matches.
- ECE
- 0.0260
- Log loss
- 0.9732
- RPS
- 0.1944
- Walk-forward
- 1140
- 1X2 accuracy
- 53%
- Goal MAE
- 0.85
Bin frequencies
| Bin | Predicted | Happened | n | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38% | 39% | 241 | +2% |
| 40–50% | 45% | 47% | 392 | +3% |
| 50–60% | 55% | 54% | 268 | −1% |
| 60–70% | 64% | 66% | 127 | +2% |
| 70–80% | 75% | 84% | 69 | +9% |
| 80–90% | 84% | 92% | 39 | +8% |
| 90–100% | 92% | 100% | 4 | +8% |
La Liga round 3 scored matches
Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.
- Matches in view
- 5
- Favourite-correct
- 80%
- Exact score hits
- 0
Previous: round 2All La Liga results
Sevilla crestSevillavsAMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid
Real Sociedad crestReal SociedadvsE
Espanyol crestEspanyolFinal 2–1·Real Sociedad win 41%
Hit- Sociedad
- 41%
- Draw
- 28%
- Espanyol
- 32%
- xG home
- 1.38
- xG away
- 1.19
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- BTTS
- 53%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Levante UD crestLevante UDvsRB
Real Betis crestReal BetisFinal 5–2·Real Betis win 39%
Miss- UD
- 36%
- Draw
- 26%
- Betis
- 39%
- xG home
- 1.43
- xG away
- 1.50
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- BTTS
- 60%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Deportivo Alavés crestDeportivo AlavésvsV
Villarreal crestVillarrealFinal 1–0·Deportivo Alavés win 37%
Hit- Alavés
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- Villarreal
- 35%
- xG home
- 1.24
- xG away
- 1.20
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match page
Real Racing Club crestReal Racing ClubvsE
Elche crestElcheFinal 3–2·Real Racing Club win 44%
Hit- Club
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- Elche
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.40
- xG away
- 1.05
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- BTTS
- 50%
la-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageLa Liga round 3 questions
How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 3?
5 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 80% and 0 exact scores hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the La Liga round 3 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other La Liga rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3.
la-v1.1.0-elo
La Liga
Live season 2026/27 · round 3
- Matches scored
- 25
- Log loss
- 0.9765
- RPS
- 0.1896
- Goal MAE
- 0.88
- 1X2 accuracy
- 52%
Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.